{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fb89d4cf-42ef-47ac-a97b-68204c90b5b7", "symbol": "PRAJIND", "name": "Praj Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 49.535, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.668, "architecture_energy": 49.016, "architecture_maturity": 4.499, "architecture_confidence": 68.674, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.19, "rotation_up": 15.32, "upward_expansion": 25.81, "deceleration": 49.69, "rotation_down": 60.27, "downward_expansion": 50.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 323.735128, 332.335211, 346.054553, 343.795432 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 325.049988, "trend_reference": 335.532732, "distance_from_trend": -0.031242, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 505.144839, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.356521, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.454304, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.138529, "excess_performance": 0.182238, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031242, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013128, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.356521, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149454, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044543, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150979, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.138529, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.764478, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5563120, "relative_activity": 0.862829, "balance": 0.764478, "dry_up": 0.544113, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074411, "annualized_volatility": 0.363094, "from_high_reference": -0.280624, "from_low_reference": 0.190659 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 335.532732, "fair_value_reference": 505.144839, "structural_low": 286.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.056469, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.034279, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.113359, "worst_return": -0.15149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.019625, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.037386, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.27711, "worst_return": -0.264538, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.104438, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.025525, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.460408, "worst_return": -0.261361, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068392, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.159055, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.220391, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.129907, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.436759, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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336.074362, "fair_value": 507.357848, "relative_strength": -0.555115, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.246489, "energy": 6.909176, "activity_lines": [ 347.269979, 348.352795, 355.506486, 347.248216 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 319.834869, "volume": 2381595, "typical_volume": 8138126.0, "trend": 335.632191, "fair_value": 506.791888, "relative_strength": -4.318236, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.982691, "energy": 22.655545, "activity_lines": [ 338.306215, 342.282211, 352.612041, 346.200507 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 308.366272, "volume": 3989940, "typical_volume": 7367344.8, "trend": 335.062733, "fair_value": 506.041024, "relative_strength": -9.31104, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.745075, "energy": 50.915678, "activity_lines": [ 326.897262, 335.047612, 348.55304, 344.441415 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 325.049988, "volume": 5563120, "typical_volume": 6447535.45, "trend": 335.532732, "fair_value": 505.144839, "relative_strength": -4.454304, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.667869, "energy": 49.016398, "activity_lines": [ 323.735128, 332.335211, 346.054553, 343.795432 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }