{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fb8ba432-7b80-4555-9098-af44d12cb3a4", "symbol": "300836", "name": "Kunshan TopA Intelligent Equipment Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.482, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -33.477, "architecture_energy": 54.541, "architecture_maturity": 17.71, "architecture_confidence": 83.192, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.24, "rotation_up": 14.12, "upward_expansion": 24.08, "deceleration": 52.0, "rotation_down": 71.03, "downward_expansion": 51.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.42, 59.785021, 63.450195, 63.005302 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 50.220001, "trend_reference": 62.491548, "distance_from_trend": -0.196371, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.560181, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.373626, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.070376, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.161882, "excess_performance": -0.169282, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.196371, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061541, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.373626, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.559836, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140704, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165555, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.161882, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.437143, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15004748, "relative_activity": 1.68257, "balance": 1.437143, "dry_up": 1.262038, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.191353, "annualized_volatility": 0.619249, "from_high_reference": -0.385912, "from_low_reference": 0.300699 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.491548, "fair_value_reference": 36.560181, "structural_low": 45.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.036757, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.052871, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.065421, "worst_return": 0.008094, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.017291, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004578, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.015327, "worst_return": -0.04991, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.000583, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.025303, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.01304, "worst_return": -0.014206, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.203105, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023739, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064055, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031057, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012018, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"typical_volume": 8786388.05, "trend": 62.757548, "fair_value": 35.924299, "relative_strength": -0.19349, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.099326, "energy": 9.684172, "activity_lines": [ 66.139162, 68.526542, 66.794668, 65.024074 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.5, "volume": 10221527, "typical_volume": 8713109.5, "trend": 62.905881, "fair_value": 36.168403, "relative_strength": 2.009985, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.328054, "energy": 19.513975, "activity_lines": [ 62.271333, 66.230729, 66.154447, 64.684878 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.299999, "volume": 10868521, "typical_volume": 8784789.9, "trend": 62.647548, "fair_value": 36.353639, "relative_strength": -11.212705, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.578789, "energy": 38.356239, "activity_lines": [ 56.852666, 62.653901, 64.744225, 63.807079 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.220001, "volume": 15004748, "typical_volume": 8917756.55, "trend": 62.491548, "fair_value": 36.560181, "relative_strength": -14.070376, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.476785, "energy": 54.541132, "activity_lines": [ 53.42, 59.785021, 63.450195, 63.005302 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }