{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fb8c4c8a-230e-4385-b3c3-23ede12b5bbf", "symbol": "COO", "name": "The Cooper Companies, Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 48.842, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 31.318, "architecture_energy": 30.797, "architecture_maturity": 12.812, "architecture_confidence": 71.23, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.8, "rotation_up": 59.56, "upward_expansion": 40.03, "deceleration": 28.68, "rotation_down": 17.39, "downward_expansion": 21.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 72.365333, 71.595273, 68.886238, 69.461806 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 74.23, "trend_reference": 71.709333, "distance_from_trend": 0.035151, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 84.312772, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.119588, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.162354, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.095859, "excess_performance": -0.283312, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035151, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037329, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.119588, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.186523, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111624, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.214974, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.095859, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.031751, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9783084, "relative_activity": 0.799306, "balance": 2.031751, "dry_up": 0.791469, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056078, "annualized_volatility": 0.319079, "from_high_reference": -0.173661, "from_low_reference": 0.260486 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 71.709333, "fair_value_reference": 84.312772, "structural_low": 58.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.007714, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00131, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.144529, "worst_return": -0.157276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.078757, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.123676, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.182518, "worst_return": -0.242751, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.173575, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.095708, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.014764, "worst_return": -0.237486, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.20474, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.11434, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.155174, "worst_return": -0.254306, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015999, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04502, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054928, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047978, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033283, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.250828, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.08041, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008354, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016556, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01084, 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69.562731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 71.71, "volume": 9424067, "typical_volume": 12633458.4, "trend": 72.72, "fair_value": 84.776378, "relative_strength": -11.828341, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.969016, "energy": 24.251321, "activity_lines": [ 71.46, 69.394545, 67.56419, 69.473828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 70.31, "volume": 9903606, "typical_volume": 12455371.9, "trend": 72.309667, "fair_value": 84.596554, "relative_strength": -11.720175, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.540058, "energy": 21.382257, "activity_lines": [ 71.327333, 69.957636, 67.800619, 69.318344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 72.32, "volume": 9637887, "typical_volume": 12253615.75, "trend": 72.016667, "fair_value": 84.437083, "relative_strength": -9.343656, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.08116, "energy": 19.837186, "activity_lines": [ 71.571333, 70.691636, 68.25819, 69.319011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.23, "volume": 9783084, "typical_volume": 12239469.1, "trend": 71.709333, "fair_value": 84.312772, "relative_strength": -11.162354, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.317539, "energy": 30.797459, "activity_lines": [ 72.365333, 71.595273, 68.886238, 69.461806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }