{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fb8d9e9f-e3b3-4191-b21a-4fe6a6a3a7a2", "symbol": "RTR", "name": "Rumble Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 65.46, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.068, "architecture_energy": 20.959, "architecture_maturity": 9.728, "architecture_confidence": 55.388, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.35, "rotation_up": 17.74, "upward_expansion": 12.59, "deceleration": 59.63, "rotation_down": 42.69, "downward_expansion": 62.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0458, 0.045636, 0.048052, 0.048196 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.047, "trend_reference": 0.048667, "distance_from_trend": -0.034247, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.05162, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.089494, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.011502, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.021739, "excess_performance": -0.041967, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034247, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039146, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.089494, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062036, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.010115, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.578992, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.021739, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.347604, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11862701, "relative_activity": 0.971615, "balance": 0.347604, "dry_up": 0.542777, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14239, "annualized_volatility": 0.72964, "from_high_reference": -0.253968, "from_low_reference": 0.813481 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.048667, "fair_value_reference": 0.05162, "structural_low": 0.038, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.071429, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.102823, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.125, "worst_return": -0.209302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.154639, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.172836, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.066667, "worst_return": -0.372093, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.279167, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.243566, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.154639, "worst_return": -0.414634, "sufficient": false }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 0.045533, 0.048873, 0.049543, 0.049125 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.045, "volume": 13988829, "typical_volume": 14490909.25, "trend": 0.048333, "fair_value": 0.054902, "relative_strength": 4.769273, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.692864, "energy": 29.099514, "activity_lines": [ 0.045133, 0.047745, 0.049171, 0.048923 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.045, "volume": 5639469, "typical_volume": 13417579.0, "trend": 0.0486, "fair_value": 0.054068, "relative_strength": 4.023069, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.375531, "energy": 28.626171, "activity_lines": [ 0.045133, 0.046727, 0.048786, 0.048708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.047, "volume": 5985130, "typical_volume": 12816403.45, "trend": 0.048733, "fair_value": 0.05328, "relative_strength": 8.146546, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.702354, "energy": 24.364564, "activity_lines": [ 0.0458, 0.046364, 0.048629, 0.048604 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.044, "volume": 3020310, "typical_volume": 12052815.45, "trend": 0.0486, "fair_value": 0.052408, "relative_strength": -1.830832, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.776341, "energy": 29.535424, "activity_lines": [ 0.045333, 0.045618, 0.048186, 0.048299 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.047, "volume": 11862701, "typical_volume": 12209258.15, "trend": 0.048667, "fair_value": 0.05162, "relative_strength": 1.011502, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.06814, "energy": 20.959367, "activity_lines": [ 0.0458, 0.045636, 0.048052, 0.048196 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }