{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fb8e47e4-a1c6-4176-afdf-aed3acd93279", "symbol": "LITI", "name": "Litium AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 24.191, "architecture_energy": 31.541, "architecture_maturity": 21.754, "architecture_confidence": 38.271, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.32, "rotation_up": 55.92, "upward_expansion": 45.24, "deceleration": 39.39, "rotation_down": 19.9, "downward_expansion": 12.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.44, 12.111818, 11.95881, 11.884516 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.35, "trend_reference": 12.085, "distance_from_trend": 0.021928, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.382072, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.189551, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.022887, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.095238, "excess_performance": -0.156732, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021928, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052405, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.189551, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003273, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.130229, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00328, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.095238, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.682353, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48975, "relative_activity": 0.743796, "balance": 0.682353, "dry_up": 1.608805, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07412, "annualized_volatility": 0.307137, "from_high_reference": -0.251515, "from_low_reference": 0.1875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.085, "fair_value_reference": 10.382072, "structural_low": 10.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.076996, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.038152, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.103604, "worst_return": -0.129921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.092511, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.093603, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.030233, "worst_return": -0.244828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.205263, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.206458, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.215116, "worst_return": -0.213793, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.131111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033654, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014423, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.295918, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.126437, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062992, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004545, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119266, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008032, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 9.22, "volume": 46942, "typical_volume": 61899.6, "trend": 10.076, "fair_value": 16.473786, "relative_strength": -15.178201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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11.867634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.65, "volume": 50770, "typical_volume": 63018.05, "trend": 12.381667, "fair_value": 10.295406, "relative_strength": -16.528292, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.83741, "energy": 38.568246, "activity_lines": [ 11.363333, 11.59, 11.590714, 11.815699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.9, "volume": 145505, "typical_volume": 66778.7, "trend": 12.365, "fair_value": 10.318611, "relative_strength": -6.091429, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.586525, "energy": 2.586284, "activity_lines": [ 11.876667, 11.799091, 11.722857, 11.84914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.8, "volume": 147631, "typical_volume": 64289.0, "trend": 12.301667, "fair_value": 10.341303, "relative_strength": -7.820145, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.326817, "energy": 13.153406, "activity_lines": [ 12.263333, 11.975455, 11.840714, 11.877204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.25, "volume": 81614, "typical_volume": 66321.9, "trend": 12.185, "fair_value": 10.360983, "relative_strength": -12.485846, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.881744, "energy": 24.809463, "activity_lines": [ 12.37, 12.037273, 11.897619, 11.873871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.35, "volume": 48975, "typical_volume": 65844.7, "trend": 12.085, "fair_value": 10.382072, "relative_strength": -13.022887, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.19083, "energy": 31.540616, "activity_lines": [ 12.44, 12.111818, 11.95881, 11.884516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }