{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fb9d116e-ec5e-4a26-85b5-963b7ccfb38d", "symbol": "LXEO", "name": "Lexeo Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.816, "architecture_energy": 36.447, "architecture_maturity": 68.926, "architecture_confidence": 88.02, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.51, "rotation_up": 24.82, "upward_expansion": 4.45, "deceleration": 56.07, "rotation_down": 44.25, "downward_expansion": 75.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.583333, 4.63, 4.867238, 5.197785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.81, "trend_reference": 5.716, "distance_from_trend": -0.158502, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.533414, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.436333, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.758668, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.328212, "excess_performance": -0.515666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.158502, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.225054, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.436333, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090841, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.377587, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134863, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.328212, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.731435, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5038905, "relative_activity": 1.150956, "balance": 0.731435, "dry_up": 1.100758, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156693, "annualized_volatility": 0.651054, "from_high_reference": -0.562329, "from_low_reference": 0.205514 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.716, "fair_value_reference": 8.533414, "structural_low": 3.99, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.018102, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027978, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.442379, "worst_return": -0.126496, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.276989, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.059692, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.684015, "worst_return": -0.130037, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 2.04461, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 1.792235, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.04461, "worst_return": 2.04461, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118715, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.119048, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-11-03", "close": 10.05, "volume": 1145020, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-11-10", "close": 10.78, 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-54.379362, "energy": 38.83722, "activity_lines": [ 4.756, 4.779818, 5.173619, 5.613742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.69, "volume": 3473343, "typical_volume": 4334428.65, "trend": 6.276, "fair_value": 8.617923, "relative_strength": -37.358165, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.636554, "energy": 35.649524, "activity_lines": [ 4.748667, 4.739818, 5.091095, 5.499247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.66, "volume": 7005709, "typical_volume": 4502079.15, "trend": 6.089667, "fair_value": 8.590245, "relative_strength": -36.691667, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.275292, "energy": 37.891836, "activity_lines": [ 4.71, 4.715091, 5.017571, 5.394989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.13, "volume": 3758594, "typical_volume": 4354214.15, "trend": 5.907, "fair_value": 8.559271, "relative_strength": -43.963129, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.211867, "energy": 44.87255, "activity_lines": [ 4.512667, 4.601818, 4.904, 5.268559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.81, "volume": 5038905, "typical_volume": 4378017.4, "trend": 5.716, "fair_value": 8.533414, "relative_strength": -37.758668, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.816002, "energy": 36.447026, "activity_lines": [ 4.583333, 4.63, 4.867238, 5.197785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }