{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fb9d36b8-c914-40f8-8f23-69853657b628", "symbol": "QXQ", "name": "SGI ENHANCED NASDAQ-100 ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.99, "architecture_energy": 25.942, "architecture_maturity": 68.599, "architecture_confidence": 86.834, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.65, "rotation_up": 29.07, "upward_expansion": 57.69, "deceleration": 88.16, "rotation_down": 29.78, "downward_expansion": 19.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.182467, 31.38496, 31.286897, 30.40476 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 32.1178, "trend_reference": 29.331711, "distance_from_trend": 0.094986, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.963618, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.286584, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.035065, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.181616, "excess_performance": -0.005838, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094986, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050583, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.286584, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022608, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000351, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001919, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.181616, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.748683, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37939, "relative_activity": 0.600725, "balance": 2.748683, "dry_up": 2.060671, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041403, "annualized_volatility": 0.210039, "from_high_reference": -0.031646, "from_low_reference": 0.304559 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.331711, "fair_value_reference": 24.963618, "structural_low": 24.75, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021285, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027701, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008435, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": 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30.036292 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.3072, "volume": 42722, "typical_volume": 48627.0, "trend": 29.087588, "fair_value": 24.848645, "relative_strength": -0.289731, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.482298, "energy": 23.250425, "activity_lines": [ 31.092585, 31.507269, 31.043552, 30.120487 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.5715, "volume": 393084, "typical_volume": 64758.7, "trend": 29.195485, "fair_value": 24.899742, "relative_strength": 0.015425, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.14168, "energy": 22.113214, "activity_lines": [ 30.848853, 31.293755, 31.101702, 30.216223 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.1178, "volume": 37939, "typical_volume": 63155.4, "trend": 29.331711, "fair_value": 24.963618, "relative_strength": -0.035065, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.989838, "energy": 25.941772, "activity_lines": [ 31.182467, 31.38496, 31.286897, 30.40476 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }