{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fba7c8c0-1631-4b80-a7f9-cd0f2952aee9", "symbol": "GDIG", "name": "VanEck S&P Global Mining UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.026, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.105, "architecture_energy": 21.126, "architecture_maturity": 22.621, "architecture_confidence": 58.686, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.52, "rotation_up": 22.76, "upward_expansion": 16.28, "deceleration": 60.29, "rotation_down": 39.29, "downward_expansion": 63.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.402, 52.154545, 53.506667, 54.245656 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 57.0, "trend_reference": 55.186, "distance_from_trend": 0.032871, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.368301, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.567299, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.41174, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.021505, "excess_performance": -0.149386, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032871, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039506, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.567299, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11474, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014117, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165789, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.021505, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.50583, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27130, "relative_activity": 0.939798, "balance": 0.50583, "dry_up": 0.774329, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058063, "annualized_volatility": 0.406803, "from_high_reference": -0.127106, "from_low_reference": 0.685643 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.186, "fair_value_reference": 36.368301, "structural_low": 46.805, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.043626, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.002267, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.111133, "worst_return": -0.097539, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.038235, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.005157, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.244436, "worst_return": -0.041407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.213666, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.03375, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.588313, "worst_return": 0.000367, "sufficient": true }, 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"close": 50.77, "volume": 25004, "typical_volume": 41497.55, "trend": 54.910166, "fair_value": 35.76016, "relative_strength": -9.21539, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.429842, "energy": 58.168494, "activity_lines": [ 52.239333, 53.478181, 54.659143, 55.11501 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.16, "volume": 21694, "typical_volume": 37159.45, "trend": 54.917833, "fair_value": 35.888525, "relative_strength": -12.871184, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.053488, "energy": 78.712891, "activity_lines": [ 50.670666, 52.320909, 53.968047, 54.679516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.860001, "volume": 16349, "typical_volume": 32992.15, "trend": 54.970666, "fair_value": 36.031955, "relative_strength": -8.127792, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.823804, "energy": 69.357366, "activity_lines": [ 50.429333, 51.826363, 53.607286, 54.41772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.34, "volume": 24240, "typical_volume": 31579.6, "trend": 55.036333, "fair_value": 36.177404, "relative_strength": -9.979355, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.645038, "energy": 66.733608, "activity_lines": [ 50.255333, 51.333454, 53.229095, 54.118968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.0, "volume": 27130, "typical_volume": 28867.9, "trend": 55.186, "fair_value": 36.368301, "relative_strength": -1.41174, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.105151, "energy": 21.125542, "activity_lines": [ 52.402, 52.154545, 53.506667, 54.245656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }