{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "fbaa5227-aa6d-4913-af6e-c6cd3c01aa05",
    "symbol": "RAYZ",
    "name": "Global X Solar UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 81.204,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -67.867,
    "architecture_energy": 84.636,
    "architecture_maturity": 16.648,
    "architecture_confidence": 79.74,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 17.05,
        "rotation_up": 8.64,
        "upward_expansion": 20.59,
        "deceleration": 37.84,
        "rotation_down": 79.93,
        "downward_expansion": 96.26
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        10.137933,
        10.5769,
        11.510369,
        11.870106
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 10.583,
    "trend_reference": 12.207883,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.133101,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 9.790647,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.08093,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -15.021455,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.174815,
    "excess_performance": -0.22605,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.133101,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.000992,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.08093,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.218582,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.150215,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.325651,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.174815,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.345698,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 22230,
      "relative_activity": 1.546919,
      "balance": 1.345698,
      "dry_up": 1.062263,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.066107,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.325297,
      "from_high_reference": -0.264252,
      "from_low_reference": 0.310345
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 12.207883,
      "fair_value_reference": 9.790647,
      "structural_low": 9.583,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 21,
        "median_return": 0.000594,
        "positive_rate": 0.52381,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.47619,
        "median_excess_return": -0.011722,
        "regime_survival": 0.809524,
        "best_return": 0.197603,
        "worst_return": -0.143051,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.054622,
        "positive_rate": 0.285714,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": -0.084829,
        "regime_survival": 0.714286,
        "best_return": 0.056915,
        "worst_return": -0.158078,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.080425,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.140658,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.146968,
        "worst_return": -0.195619,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.097701,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
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        "worst_return": -0.284229,
        "sufficient": false
      }
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        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-06-21",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "start": "2024-06-28",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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      {
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      {
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 22252.35,
        "trend": 11.8321,
        "fair_value": 10.025708,
        "relative_strength": 14.180797,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 20764.75,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 20716.5,
        "trend": 12.012433,
        "fair_value": 10.004042,
        "relative_strength": 20.867847,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 22251.35,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 20690.95,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "trend": 12.249867,
        "fair_value": 9.985798,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "trend": 12.270933,
        "fair_value": 9.968804,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 23,
        "typical_volume": 19269.0,
        "trend": 12.3564,
        "fair_value": 9.935163,
        "relative_strength": -4.180631,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -39.763524,
        "energy": 40.562454,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 11.173,
        "volume": 1005,
        "typical_volume": 17950.6,
        "trend": 12.369667,
        "fair_value": 9.914349,
        "relative_strength": -8.077842,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -45.848519,
        "energy": 63.274154,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 10.587,
        "volume": 4403,
        "typical_volume": 18039.65,
        "trend": 12.363433,
        "fair_value": 9.887439,
        "relative_strength": -11.526898,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -61.813345,
        "energy": 82.470848,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 9.7735,
        "volume": 3730,
        "typical_volume": 18156.65,
        "trend": 12.32555,
        "fair_value": 9.857942,
        "relative_strength": -19.144105,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -93.559988,
        "energy": 97.162326,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.6693,
          11.517909,
          12.132314,
          12.291241
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 9.912,
        "volume": 10035,
        "typical_volume": 16694.8,
        "trend": 12.284583,
        "fair_value": 9.831333,
        "relative_strength": -19.051035,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -82.098778,
        "energy": 93.168797,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.279667,
          11.101936,
          11.893883,
          12.135528
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 9.821,
        "volume": 25066,
        "typical_volume": 14799.55,
        "trend": 12.23345,
        "fair_value": 9.806391,
        "relative_strength": -20.796759,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -77.032899,
        "energy": 91.35404,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.028033,
          10.733327,
          11.657757,
          11.976587
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 10.583,
        "volume": 22230,
        "typical_volume": 14370.5,
        "trend": 12.207883,
        "fair_value": 9.790647,
        "relative_strength": -15.021455,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -67.867467,
        "energy": 84.635767,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.137933,
          10.5769,
          11.510369,
          11.870106
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}