{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fbaf389c-85ed-4a4e-bb86-de6b3a4d9f54", "symbol": "BCIA11", "name": "Bradesco Carteira Imobiliaria Ativa Fundos de Investimento Imobiliario", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.69, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.478, "architecture_energy": 32.94, "architecture_maturity": 34.802, "architecture_confidence": 83.863, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.67, "rotation_up": 25.8, "upward_expansion": 16.99, "deceleration": 43.8, "rotation_down": 35.45, "downward_expansion": 64.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 87.640131, 87.558062, 88.687059, 89.607216 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 87.589996, "trend_reference": 90.43307, "distance_from_trend": -0.031438, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 80.268793, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.091209, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.594318, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.064736, "excess_performance": -0.007688, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031438, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020034, "read": "Rising" 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85.305291, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.011545, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.021106, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.089792, "worst_return": -0.082923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.043295, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.090424, "worst_return": -0.142477, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.035625, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.06673, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.326224, "worst_return": -0.064937, 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"rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.010071, "energy": 71.000138, "activity_lines": [ 87.156886, 87.815209, 89.376542, 90.082264 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 87.909803, "volume": 15736, "typical_volume": 19980.7, "trend": 90.192753, "fair_value": 80.133633, "relative_strength": -2.594995, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.25912, "energy": 60.741068, "activity_lines": [ 87.368576, 87.70783, 89.138417, 89.940782 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 87.761262, "volume": 8064, "typical_volume": 19539.6, "trend": 90.328788, "fair_value": 80.199229, "relative_strength": -4.606785, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.29655, "energy": 42.190303, "activity_lines": [ 87.54141, 87.629956, 88.911756, 89.783912 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 87.589996, "volume": 13853, "typical_volume": 19524.0, "trend": 90.43307, "fair_value": 80.268793, "relative_strength": -1.594318, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.478376, "energy": 32.940459, "activity_lines": [ 87.640131, 87.558062, 88.687059, 89.607216 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }