{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fbb0bf7b-fcdc-4260-8703-647b0b5c72a0", "symbol": "FIN", "name": "Finseta Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.677, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -0.21, "architecture_energy": 7.402, "architecture_maturity": 50.817, "architecture_confidence": 39.221, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.52, "rotation_up": 25.39, "upward_expansion": 22.55, "deceleration": 61.14, "rotation_down": 32.01, "downward_expansion": 29.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.114667, 0.1173, 0.108983, 0.109234 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.1125, "trend_reference": 0.1144, "distance_from_trend": -0.016608, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.248236, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.546801, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.144961, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.210526, "excess_performance": -0.261762, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016608, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080817, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.546801, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099391, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.24145, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.324104, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.210526, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.926702, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1141154, "relative_activity": 1.847482, "balance": 1.926702, "dry_up": 0.812003, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14, "annualized_volatility": 0.504591, "from_high_reference": -0.55, "from_low_reference": 0.433121 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.1144, "fair_value_reference": 0.248236, "structural_low": 0.0785, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.116438, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.122942, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.0625, "worst_return": -0.150943, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.291567, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.318365, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.21875, "worst_return": -0.364384, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.044521, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.070298, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.589041, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.182363, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 1.10021, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.125, "worst_return": -0.760274, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.937778, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.270833, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.22807, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.179104, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.08642, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.132353, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.217949, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.09589, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023256, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.47, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.150943, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.1, "volume": 426115, "typical_volume": 1470119.75, "trend": 0.0845, "fair_value": 0.200982, "relative_strength": 31.115651, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.487205, "energy": 45.133719, 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"trend": 0.117442, "fair_value": 0.248348, "relative_strength": -25.887742, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.107096, "energy": 53.280828, "activity_lines": [ 0.124167, 0.115409, 0.106333, 0.109839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.115, "volume": 148729, "typical_volume": 601242.7, "trend": 0.116483, "fair_value": 0.248252, "relative_strength": -25.073391, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.212144, "energy": 45.609159, "activity_lines": [ 0.121167, 0.116827, 0.107324, 0.109681 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1125, "volume": 210883, "typical_volume": 585779.4, "trend": 0.115442, "fair_value": 0.248204, "relative_strength": -25.649319, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.049055, "energy": 17.765812, "activity_lines": [ 0.117667, 0.117291, 0.108124, 0.109424 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1125, "volume": 1141154, "typical_volume": 617680.6, "trend": 0.1144, "fair_value": 0.248236, "relative_strength": -24.144961, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.209633, "energy": 7.40207, "activity_lines": [ 0.114667, 0.1173, 0.108983, 0.109234 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }