{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fbb4c483-8539-4664-92c9-d02fc7b27352", "symbol": "6151", "name": "Ginar Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 1.227, "architecture_energy": 16.569, "architecture_maturity": 39.692, "architecture_confidence": 77.37, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.71, "rotation_up": 15.69, "upward_expansion": 41.86, "deceleration": 77.71, "rotation_down": 43.71, "downward_expansion": 38.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.926667, 36.826364, 38.485476, 37.33427 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 37.799999, "trend_reference": 35.265372, "distance_from_trend": 0.071873, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.143637, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.253996, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.570513, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.37651, "excess_performance": -0.064862, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071873, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10945, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.253996, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.185991, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145705, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108729, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.37651, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.908055, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 988611, "relative_activity": 0.312908, "balance": 0.908055, "dry_up": 0.256821, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109992, "annualized_volatility": 0.469359, "from_high_reference": -0.258824, "from_low_reference": 0.470826 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.265372, "fair_value_reference": 30.143637, "structural_low": 26.842056, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.080123, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.036873, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.030137, "worst_return": -0.14625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.124736, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.062481, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.200765, "worst_return": -0.144028, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.042283, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.070675, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.370937, "worst_return": -0.327352, 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false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.170148, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070015, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034305, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047359, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": 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29.971232, "relative_strength": -19.024853, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.207617, "energy": 20.166358, "activity_lines": [ 35.980001, 37.752727, 38.770861, 37.138954 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.0, "volume": 437003, "typical_volume": 3168009.5, "trend": 34.971495, "fair_value": 30.048047, "relative_strength": -18.54084, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.719567, "energy": 21.868774, "activity_lines": [ 35.320001, 36.961818, 38.506667, 37.151786 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 37.799999, "volume": 988611, "typical_volume": 3159432.55, "trend": 35.265372, "fair_value": 30.143637, "relative_strength": -14.570513, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.226829, "energy": 16.56921, "activity_lines": [ 35.926667, 36.826364, 38.485476, 37.33427 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }