{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fbbc8525-56f8-4d96-8d3f-f19a057df242", "symbol": "SS11", "name": "SSgA SPDR ETFs Europe I Public Limited Company - SPDR S&P US Dividend Aristocrats UCITS ETF", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 93.328, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.985, "architecture_energy": 60.695, "architecture_maturity": 46.122, "architecture_confidence": 70.586, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.35, "rotation_up": 66.65, "upward_expansion": 85.65, "deceleration": 65.34, "rotation_down": 19.17, "downward_expansion": 9.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.033335, 74.657167, 73.143635, 72.364964 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 75.230003, "trend_reference": 71.481265, "distance_from_trend": 0.052444, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 65.696267, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.145118, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.976321, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.056785, "excess_performance": -0.117462, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052444, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04028, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.145118, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070749, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109763, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012007, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056785, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.087969, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67, "relative_activity": 0.089108, "balance": 2.087969, "dry_up": 0.84486, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019384, "annualized_volatility": 0.09526, "from_high_reference": -0.02904, "from_low_reference": 0.193293 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 71.481265, "fair_value_reference": 65.696267, "structural_low": 68.389999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.014946, "positive_rate": 0.59375, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.016028, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.063146, "worst_return": -0.057702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.036276, "positive_rate": 0.916667, "directional_follow_through": 0.916667, "median_excess_return": 0.014656, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.091614, "worst_return": -0.037058, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.083514, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.024068, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.124814, "worst_return": -0.033406, 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74.165697, 72.993553, 71.721127, 71.235844 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 75.410004, "volume": 816, "typical_volume": 824.9, "trend": 70.594388, "fair_value": 65.406068, "relative_strength": -7.789874, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.128024, "energy": 92.735373, "activity_lines": [ 74.738603, 73.615685, 72.127842, 71.567496 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 75.620003, "volume": 842, "typical_volume": 844.25, "trend": 70.94007, "fair_value": 65.502713, "relative_strength": -8.512631, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.102614, "energy": 89.938998, "activity_lines": [ 75.182003, 74.164994, 72.53914, 71.891729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 74.279999, "volume": 816, "typical_volume": 862.3, "trend": 71.234786, "fair_value": 65.595102, "relative_strength": -9.775095, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.497324, "energy": 62.949771, "activity_lines": [ 74.946002, 74.355843, 72.802707, 72.107208 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.230003, "volume": 67, "typical_volume": 751.9, "trend": 71.481265, "fair_value": 65.696267, "relative_strength": -10.976321, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.984871, "energy": 60.694991, "activity_lines": [ 75.033335, 74.657167, 73.143635, 72.364964 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }