{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fbc0dcfc-bf0a-426e-ba00-c1812db9c3a2", "symbol": "300381", "name": "Guangdong VTR Bio-Tech Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.695, "architecture_energy": 38.889, "architecture_maturity": 35.292, "architecture_confidence": 84.236, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.24, "rotation_up": 22.62, "upward_expansion": 5.16, "deceleration": 56.35, "rotation_down": 44.76, "downward_expansion": 73.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.764667, 5.771751, 6.046221, 6.229946 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.98, "trend_reference": 6.460461, "distance_from_trend": -0.074369, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.814383, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.122444, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.067347, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.124451, "excess_performance": -0.131851, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.074369, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051315, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.122444, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177513, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140673, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032714, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.124451, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.803613, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39361221, "relative_activity": 0.97798, "balance": 0.803613, "dry_up": 1.017872, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082252, "annualized_volatility": 0.366664, "from_high_reference": -0.260816, "from_low_reference": 0.115672 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.460461, "fair_value_reference": 6.814383, "structural_low": 5.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.01133, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.015352, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.690249, "worst_return": -0.165536, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.01074, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.066615, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.777273, "worst_return": -0.090202, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.02506, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.032123, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.411103, "worst_return": -0.087537, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.4, "volume": 42565485, "typical_volume": 42085919.5, "trend": 6.508127, "fair_value": 6.827719, "relative_strength": -21.141998, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.88475, "energy": 48.386794, "activity_lines": [ 5.678, 5.790659, 6.132258, 6.312306 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.73, "volume": 32462668, "typical_volume": 41112715.6, "trend": 6.478461, "fair_value": 6.820845, "relative_strength": -14.24114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.406205, "energy": 44.917997, "activity_lines": [ 5.685333, 5.747032, 6.073859, 6.262104 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.98, "volume": 39361221, "typical_volume": 40247474.35, "trend": 6.460461, "fair_value": 6.814383, "relative_strength": -14.067347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.694841, "energy": 38.889278, "activity_lines": [ 5.764667, 5.771751, 6.046221, 6.229946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }