{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fbc3874e-fa2c-4c4f-8c4d-26b3d10fd49b", "symbol": "CARE11", "name": "Brazilian Graveyard Death Care Services Fundo Investimento Imobiliario - Fii", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.298, "architecture_energy": 51.638, "architecture_maturity": 66.981, "architecture_confidence": 92.323, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.93, "rotation_up": 20.41, "upward_expansion": 7.56, "deceleration": 55.37, "rotation_down": 53.79, "downward_expansion": 76.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.848667, 2.953455, 3.208095, 3.582817 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.87, "trend_reference": 4.144667, "distance_from_trend": -0.307544, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.645769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.568146, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.06409, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.496491, "excess_performance": -0.439443, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.307544, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14923, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.568146, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012057, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.410641, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089152, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.496491, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.301829, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4079, "relative_activity": 0.269785, "balance": 0.301829, "dry_up": 1.700062, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.184669, "annualized_volatility": 0.835158, "from_high_reference": -0.52562, "from_low_reference": 0.543011 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.144667, "fair_value_reference": 6.645769, "structural_low": 1.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.036767, "positive_rate": 0.325, "directional_follow_through": 0.675, "median_excess_return": -0.039847, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 5.078947, "worst_return": -0.254902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.054808, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.123957, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 3.058824, "worst_return": -0.327177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.094488, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.179757, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 6.490196, "worst_return": -0.501319, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.149476, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.28536, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 6.431373, "worst_return": -0.622691, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-10-14", "end": "2022-10-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.150617, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-10-28", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.548813, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.189024, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.158879, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041176, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011765, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006061, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.132911, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075188, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": 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"trend": 4.314667, "fair_value": 6.73391, "relative_strength": -47.10126, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.289894, "energy": 55.483068, "activity_lines": [ 2.820667, 2.990182, 3.332381, 3.747462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.13, "volume": 4437, "typical_volume": 15321.25, "trend": 4.237333, "fair_value": 6.690192, "relative_strength": -38.821821, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.396098, "energy": 49.288928, "activity_lines": [ 2.874667, 2.990364, 3.277905, 3.671032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.87, "volume": 4079, "typical_volume": 15119.45, "trend": 4.144667, "fair_value": 6.645769, "relative_strength": -41.06409, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.297625, "energy": 51.637644, "activity_lines": [ 2.848667, 2.953455, 3.208095, 3.582817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }