{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fbc3b46a-56f0-4e84-91d3-e83446fac34f", "symbol": "3176", "name": "Medigen Biotechnology Corp.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 62.496, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.867, "architecture_energy": 16.244, "architecture_maturity": 19.171, "architecture_confidence": 76.563, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.69, "rotation_up": 29.85, "upward_expansion": 52.39, "deceleration": 81.95, "rotation_down": 34.26, "downward_expansion": 25.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.103334, 33.689091, 33.626905, 33.223978 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 33.75, "trend_reference": 32.75, "distance_from_trend": 0.030534, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.565705, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.051052, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.880431, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.068038, "excess_performance": -0.373334, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030534, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027666, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.051052, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002332, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.238804, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033431, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068038, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.009054, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1788604, "relative_activity": 0.543241, "balance": 2.009054, "dry_up": 0.585256, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106325, "annualized_volatility": 0.419984, "from_high_reference": -0.225917, "from_low_reference": 0.205357 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.75, "fair_value_reference": 35.565705, "structural_low": 28.950001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.01626, "positive_rate": 0.36, "directional_follow_through": 0.36, "median_excess_return": -0.031038, "regime_survival": 0.56, "best_return": 0.648485, "worst_return": -0.171831, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.019345, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.132672, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.278788, "worst_return": -0.280357, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.154062, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.188082, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.315234, "worst_return": -0.23524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.094843, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.248231, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.297619, "worst_return": -0.357364, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024775, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.123515, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083117, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.089286, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.243698, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054422, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.056911, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059829, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053422, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007704, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007752, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114094, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.083467, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 32.5, "volume": 693000, "typical_volume": 845050.0, "trend": 32.906667, "fair_value": 50.315064, "relative_strength": -13.1728, "stage": 4, "regime": 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3365735.5, "trend": 32.71, "fair_value": 35.556731, "relative_strength": -24.47867, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.447671, "energy": 31.332893, "activity_lines": [ 34.47, 34.193636, 33.714285, 33.190215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.15, "volume": 1381418, "typical_volume": 3372784.9, "trend": 32.666666, "fair_value": 35.54359, "relative_strength": -26.97078, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.741074, "energy": 7.584499, "activity_lines": [ 33.343333, 33.645454, 33.528809, 33.08957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.700001, "volume": 3275368, "typical_volume": 3310297.0, "trend": 32.7, "fair_value": 35.553205, "relative_strength": -22.125948, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.72708, "energy": 16.599683, "activity_lines": [ 33.16, 33.671818, 33.578333, 33.156236 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 33.75, "volume": 1788604, "typical_volume": 3292470.0, "trend": 32.75, "fair_value": 35.565705, "relative_strength": -23.880431, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.866504, "energy": 16.243678, "activity_lines": [ 33.103334, 33.689091, 33.626905, 33.223978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }