{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fbc46401-67cb-4f8f-92db-1a35ac15c357", "symbol": "HDFCBANK", "name": "HDFC Bank Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.82, "architecture_energy": 42.882, "architecture_maturity": 73.129, "architecture_confidence": 63.575, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.34, "rotation_up": 15.62, "upward_expansion": 16.86, "deceleration": 53.38, "rotation_down": 67.23, "downward_expansion": 68.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 756.010002, 771.948345, 769.272567, 777.999005 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 731.0, "trend_reference": 802.576377, "distance_from_trend": -0.089183, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 829.904658, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.119176, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.325693, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.210402, "excess_performance": -0.166693, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089183, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076732, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.119176, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043129, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153257, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017411, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.210402, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.476826, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 170592345, "relative_activity": 1.1602, "balance": 0.476826, "dry_up": 1.018446, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042552, "annualized_volatility": 0.237933, "from_high_reference": -0.271837, "from_low_reference": 0.022625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 802.576377, "fair_value_reference": 829.904658, "structural_low": 714.827161, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.015686, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.008461, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.098913, "worst_return": -0.144103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.008478, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.0019, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.10917, "worst_return": -0.14327, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.047237, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.075663, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.085355, "worst_return": -0.175761, "sufficient": false }, { 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787.467134 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 748.150024, "volume": 145392323, "typical_volume": 157971570.95, "trend": 809.00045, "fair_value": 830.186891, "relative_strength": -13.154422, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.444747, "energy": 21.017377, "activity_lines": [ 774.780001, 779.764037, 772.905431, 783.031292 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 731.0, "volume": 170592345, "typical_volume": 147037012.75, "trend": 802.576377, "fair_value": 829.904658, "relative_strength": -15.325693, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.819996, "energy": 42.881987, "activity_lines": [ 756.010002, 771.948345, 769.272567, 777.999005 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }