{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fbc57e1b-3d10-43c3-b8b3-4dadb5c62541", "symbol": "4347", "name": "Bonyan REIT Fund", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.171, "architecture_energy": 42.303, "architecture_maturity": 92.473, "architecture_confidence": 68.839, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.11, "rotation_up": 46.86, "upward_expansion": 73.33, "deceleration": 79.77, "rotation_down": 27.39, "downward_expansion": 18.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.002667, 10.030182, 9.877386, 9.701239 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 9.77, "trend_reference": 9.475381, "distance_from_trend": 0.031093, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.409167, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.161827, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.735359, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.073961, "excess_performance": 0.10579, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031093, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046312, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.161827, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038666, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.087354, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032005, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.073961, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.008059, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1053869, "relative_activity": 1.793838, "balance": 2.008059, "dry_up": 1.094904, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022499, "annualized_volatility": 0.104673, "from_high_reference": -0.045898, "from_low_reference": 0.174335 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.475381, "fair_value_reference": 8.409167, "structural_low": 8.837796, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.00299, "positive_rate": 0.558824, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": -0.006907, "regime_survival": 0.676471, "best_return": 0.062693, "worst_return": -0.059118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.005571, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.015298, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.068637, "worst_return": -0.064631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.040375, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.02849, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.073961, "worst_return": -0.072055, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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547083, "typical_volume": 516166.15, "trend": 9.40569, "fair_value": 8.377105, "relative_strength": 13.715982, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.976908, "energy": 64.590952, "activity_lines": [ 10.088667, 10.047818, 9.814342, 9.63233 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.15, "volume": 684370, "typical_volume": 538809.85, "trend": 9.446228, "fair_value": 8.394558, "relative_strength": 15.966196, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.486731, "energy": 63.406865, "activity_lines": [ 10.111333, 10.076545, 9.866466, 9.68035 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.77, "volume": 1053869, "typical_volume": 587494.05, "trend": 9.475381, "fair_value": 8.409167, "relative_strength": 8.735359, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.171061, "energy": 42.302882, "activity_lines": [ 10.002667, 10.030182, 9.877386, 9.701239 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }