{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fbc9e3bc-e40a-4e2e-a8e1-e4e15895228e", "symbol": "ARCON", "name": "Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.042, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -33.871, "architecture_energy": 52.484, "architecture_maturity": 6.202, "architecture_confidence": 48.988, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.36, "rotation_up": 19.22, "upward_expansion": 19.55, "deceleration": 44.08, "rotation_down": 64.47, "downward_expansion": 61.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 144.241997, 145.191653, 147.435722, 147.879076 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 146.679993, "trend_reference": 147.051231, "distance_from_trend": -0.002525, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 160.324441, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.085105, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.256864, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.040843, "excess_performance": 0.013824, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002525, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025032, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.085105, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026934, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.022569, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047485, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.040843, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.316273, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13133, "relative_activity": 1.53109, "balance": 1.316273, "dry_up": 0.780555, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025798, "annualized_volatility": 0.248745, "from_high_reference": -0.101579, "from_low_reference": 0.223453 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 147.051231, "fair_value_reference": 160.324441, "structural_low": 141.43145, 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"up", "direction": 1.187218, "energy": 6.150679, "activity_lines": [ 147.990735, 148.924963, 149.947188, 148.668139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 145.229996, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8538.5, "trend": 146.412914, "fair_value": 160.391133, "relative_strength": 1.046924, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.18021, "energy": 10.186669, "activity_lines": [ 147.213111, 148.027515, 149.512455, 148.6053 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 143.0, "volume": 13632, "typical_volume": 9220.1, "trend": 146.547492, "fair_value": 160.369364, "relative_strength": -0.457292, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.678539, "energy": 35.254025, "activity_lines": [ 145.519115, 146.937288, 148.878191, 148.385112 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 143.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7920.1, "trend": 146.680072, "fair_value": 160.347595, "relative_strength": 0.127747, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.481158, "energy": 53.118545, "activity_lines": [ 144.263332, 145.991241, 148.267394, 148.156242 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 142.5, "volume": 16, "typical_volume": 7920.9, "trend": 146.795985, "fair_value": 160.322621, "relative_strength": -0.802389, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.730078, "energy": 61.829649, "activity_lines": [ 143.279333, 145.098466, 147.637206, 147.88656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 146.679993, "volume": 13133, "typical_volume": 8577.55, "trend": 147.051231, "fair_value": 160.324441, "relative_strength": 2.256864, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.871385, "energy": 52.484105, "activity_lines": [ 144.241997, 145.191653, 147.435722, 147.879076 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }