{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fbd06ae5-2a4c-43cb-bd0b-1a52865573ab", "symbol": "00896", "name": "CTBC TIP Customized Taiwan Green Energy and Electric Vehicles ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.033, "architecture_energy": 22.038, "architecture_maturity": 69.439, "architecture_confidence": 81.593, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.01, "rotation_up": 26.69, "upward_expansion": 57.97, "deceleration": 88.31, "rotation_down": 29.05, "downward_expansion": 19.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.302, 26.69199, 26.322299, 25.246597 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.809999, "trend_reference": 23.71553, "distance_from_trend": 0.130483, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.282977, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.646505, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.278881, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.3265, "excess_performance": -0.052811, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.130483, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140254, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.646505, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044938, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042789, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002908, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.3265, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.070326, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10488185, "relative_activity": 0.574478, "balance": 2.070326, "dry_up": 0.875961, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068341, "annualized_volatility": 0.297895, "from_high_reference": -0.09181, "from_low_reference": 0.772897 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.71553, "fair_value_reference": 16.282977, "structural_low": 19.339909, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.00767, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.010584, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.053579, "worst_return": -0.023995, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.045605, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024723, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.103234, "worst_return": -0.044003, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.05742, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.05483, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.064834, "worst_return": 0.050005, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.147819, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.071211, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.194247, "worst_return": 0.101391, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-03-31", "end": "2023-08-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.10702, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-10-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061086, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05485, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006197, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.127867, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03404, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.05659, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002861, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015394, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079827, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.681286, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05096, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 12.601885, "volume": 12105053, "typical_volume": 10981221.45, "trend": 11.395518, "fair_value": 10.611715, "relative_strength": 7.525415, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.506135, "energy": 65.114558, "activity_lines": [ 12.894035, 12.729105, 12.239891, 11.882641 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 12.386991, "volume": 8662526, 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"volume": 18948216, "typical_volume": 18782566.1, "trend": 23.442973, "fair_value": 16.195934, "relative_strength": -6.718978, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.147594, "energy": 21.614147, "activity_lines": [ 26.261333, 26.733795, 26.155392, 25.029369 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.809999, "volume": 10488185, "typical_volume": 18256887.25, "trend": 23.71553, "fair_value": 16.282977, "relative_strength": -4.278881, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.033036, "energy": 22.037534, "activity_lines": [ 26.302, 26.69199, 26.322299, 25.246597 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }