{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fbd487c6-6b54-48bd-9f71-15b9f8506fa3", "symbol": "RNWH", "name": "Renew Holdings plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.564, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.834, "architecture_energy": 20.595, "architecture_maturity": 9.68, "architecture_confidence": 52.011, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.06, "rotation_up": 54.39, "upward_expansion": 42.37, "deceleration": 27.64, "rotation_down": 20.34, "downward_expansion": 17.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 915.133333, 905.327273, 900.266767, 900.70855 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 924.0, "trend_reference": 905.000419, "distance_from_trend": 0.020994, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 885.809101, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.043114, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.778027, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.023038, "excess_performance": -0.074273, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020994, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003084, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.043114, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009154, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04778, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032275, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.023038, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.71664, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 567798, "relative_activity": 0.893414, "balance": 0.71664, "dry_up": 1.017159, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051096, "annualized_volatility": 0.218571, "from_high_reference": -0.055004, "from_low_reference": 0.197158 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 905.000419, "fair_value_reference": 885.809101, "structural_low": 823.93421, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.042334, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.018497, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.143035, "worst_return": -0.08472, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.03948, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.002484, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.113128, "worst_return": -0.167341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.070857, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.021047, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.1957, "worst_return": 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0.031515, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029833, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.143035, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023965, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004283, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048489, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019977, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05618, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102439, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043275, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004348, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 731.502502, "volume": 928886, "typical_volume": 737676.7, "trend": 717.00095, "fair_value": 665.026234, "relative_strength": 9.557978, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.808357, "energy": 21.158672, "activity_lines": [ 914.266667, 898.468815, 897.406525, 899.903006 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 897.0, "volume": 590799, "typical_volume": 668394.45, "trend": 904.393679, "fair_value": 884.754507, "relative_strength": -7.455298, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.748685, "energy": 13.469253, "activity_lines": [ 910.666667, 899.544142, 897.54396, 899.443626 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 924.0, "volume": 567798, "typical_volume": 635537.1, "trend": 905.000419, "fair_value": 885.809101, "relative_strength": -4.778027, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.833727, "energy": 20.595105, "activity_lines": [ 915.133333, 905.327273, 900.266767, 900.70855 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }