{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fbdce7ca-35cb-4df5-abe8-344e5a2eb839", "symbol": "ETC", "name": "Evolve Cryptocurrencies ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.381, "architecture_energy": 33.027, "architecture_maturity": 30.944, "architecture_confidence": 84.768, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.29, "rotation_up": 26.21, "upward_expansion": 16.34, "deceleration": 46.05, "rotation_down": 33.35, "downward_expansion": 61.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.232, 12.133091, 12.664048, 12.95329 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.29, "trend_reference": 13.544833, "distance_from_trend": -0.092643, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.20424, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.191673, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.706695, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.099304, "excess_performance": -0.219725, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092643, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13053, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.191673, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.209411, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.357067, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051535, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.099304, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.30992, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9200, "relative_activity": 0.529192, "balance": 0.30992, "dry_up": 1.010929, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06234, "annualized_volatility": 0.378442, "from_high_reference": -0.529259, "from_low_reference": 0.104223 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.544833, "fair_value_reference": 15.20424, "structural_low": 11.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.031506, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.04505, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.116383, "worst_return": -0.122642, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.010378, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.002389, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.089099, "worst_return": -0.062015, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.281447, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.154748, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.325581, "worst_return": 0.059303, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.233837, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059673, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.177856, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.020285, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.151246, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046416, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.15787, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068733, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090989, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020764, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.041729, "volume": 15000, "typical_volume": 15360.0, "trend": 6.328248, "fair_value": 7.298516, "relative_strength": 9.029373, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.780416, "energy": 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11.842667, 12.497091, 13.132238, 13.547742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.3, "volume": 10200, "typical_volume": 22270.0, "trend": 14.257473, "fair_value": 15.062445, "relative_strength": -38.206215, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.027909, "energy": 67.005738, "activity_lines": [ 12.015333, 12.344182, 13.038524, 13.409677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.26, "volume": 12200, "typical_volume": 17780.0, "trend": 14.086851, "fair_value": 15.097338, "relative_strength": -37.247335, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.20971, "energy": 52.111661, "activity_lines": [ 12.109333, 12.226364, 12.943714, 13.280808 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.35, "volume": 14600, "typical_volume": 16560.0, "trend": 13.929833, "fair_value": 15.133699, "relative_strength": -35.887225, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.126953, "energy": 38.616715, "activity_lines": [ 12.218667, 12.174182, 12.858429, 13.168753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.04, "volume": 34300, "typical_volume": 17720.0, "trend": 13.739833, "fair_value": 15.168582, "relative_strength": -36.146002, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.001392, "energy": 36.347117, "activity_lines": [ 12.202, 12.110909, 12.745762, 13.046828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.29, "volume": 9200, "typical_volume": 17385.0, "trend": 13.544833, "fair_value": 15.20424, "relative_strength": -35.706695, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.381255, "energy": 33.027031, "activity_lines": [ 12.232, 12.133091, 12.664048, 12.95329 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }