{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fbe159e9-9d65-4d82-b968-bda42d5de287", "symbol": "CRH", "name": "CRH PLC ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.97, "architecture_energy": 62.445, "architecture_maturity": 29.101, "architecture_confidence": 88.143, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.94, "rotation_up": 10.91, "upward_expansion": 13.51, "deceleration": 37.93, "rotation_down": 69.71, "downward_expansion": 89.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 99.506667, 102.658545, 105.329185, 106.949003 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 100.48, "trend_reference": 110.267382, "distance_from_trend": -0.08876, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 91.382812, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.09955, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.941341, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.203734, "excess_performance": -0.329359, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.08876, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044603, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.09955, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.203855, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.209413, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125671, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.203734, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.71733, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26108808, "relative_activity": 1.151114, "balance": 0.71733, "dry_up": 0.976821, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080295, "annualized_volatility": 0.351991, "from_high_reference": -0.230488, "from_low_reference": 0.06763 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 110.267382, "fair_value_reference": 91.382812, "structural_low": 94.115, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.004789, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008503, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.265537, "worst_return": -0.15787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.061779, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.005277, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.119927, "worst_return": -0.119846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.156733, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.078067, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.395952, "worst_return": -0.168895, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 99.87, "volume": 20169967, "typical_volume": 23315535.8, "trend": 112.281432, "fair_value": 90.839777, "relative_strength": -18.40649, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.425855, "energy": 53.467105, "activity_lines": [ 103.502667, 105.537091, 107.14319, 108.759093 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 95.01, "volume": 26357387, "typical_volume": 23063399.9, "trend": 111.264964, "fair_value": 91.090133, "relative_strength": -22.990435, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.709419, "energy": 67.60325, "activity_lines": [ 100.016, 103.551818, 105.965154, 107.644807 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 100.48, "volume": 26108808, "typical_volume": 22681334.8, "trend": 110.267382, "fair_value": 91.382812, "relative_strength": -20.941341, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.969973, "energy": 62.445173, "activity_lines": [ 99.506667, 102.658545, 105.329185, 106.949003 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }