{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fbe47e86-35a8-4a10-b8db-314f5a7510e9", "symbol": "PHIO", "name": "Phio Pharmaceuticals Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.523, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.513, "architecture_energy": 20.922, "architecture_maturity": 52.462, "architecture_confidence": 77.398, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.85, "rotation_up": 23.88, "upward_expansion": 13.56, "deceleration": 45.09, "rotation_down": 32.61, "downward_expansion": 61.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.033333, 1.026273, 1.0555, 1.088291 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.04, "trend_reference": 1.117503, "distance_from_trend": -0.069354, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.078176, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.744984, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -34.683167, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.130312, "excess_performance": -0.057142, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069354, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050552, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.744984, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084538, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.346832, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132757, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.130312, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.737815, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 553940, "relative_activity": 0.249378, "balance": 9.737815, "dry_up": 3.451412, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106313, "annualized_volatility": 1.100721, "from_high_reference": -0.751784, "from_low_reference": 0.279685 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.117503, "fair_value_reference": 4.078176, "structural_low": 0.84, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": -0.098305, "positive_rate": 0.404255, "directional_follow_through": 0.595745, "median_excess_return": -0.083488, "regime_survival": 0.87234, "best_return": 2.052741, "worst_return": -0.516832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.150333, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.225044, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.464605, "worst_return": -0.576846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.239263, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.487443, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.366864, "worst_return": -0.741497, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.04, "volume": 1465229, "typical_volume": 2336649.4, "trend": 1.12367, "fair_value": 4.337247, "relative_strength": -33.990875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.901214, "energy": 31.357582, "activity_lines": [ 1.023333, 1.028545, 1.070714, 1.099915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.025, "volume": 482368, "typical_volume": 2271787.65, "trend": 1.121503, "fair_value": 4.20074, "relative_strength": -33.787549, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.671599, "energy": 23.857102, "activity_lines": [ 1.027667, 1.025455, 1.062048, 1.093549 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.04, "volume": 553940, "typical_volume": 2221290.2, "trend": 1.117503, "fair_value": 4.078176, "relative_strength": -34.683167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.512659, "energy": 20.92231, "activity_lines": [ 1.033333, 1.026273, 1.0555, 1.088291 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }