{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fbe7cc14-7525-46e2-b09d-32fcfcbc99aa", "symbol": "SHOT", "name": "Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.361, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.374, "architecture_energy": 68.885, "architecture_maturity": 7.97, "architecture_confidence": 71.55, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.56, "rotation_up": 8.95, "upward_expansion": 23.96, "deceleration": 40.33, "rotation_down": 73.96, "downward_expansion": 82.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 83.163333, 85.239999, 87.253811, 87.25216 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 83.0, "trend_reference": 87.334432, "distance_from_trend": -0.04963, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 68.295523, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.215307, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.191185, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.069208, "excess_performance": -0.130702, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04963, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019537, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.215307, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.189098, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.161912, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117445, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.069208, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.910007, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 753741, "relative_activity": 0.549717, "balance": 0.910007, "dry_up": 1.085771, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044532, "annualized_volatility": 0.241155, "from_high_reference": -0.151695, "from_low_reference": 0.089033 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 87.334432, "fair_value_reference": 68.295523, "structural_low": 76.214428, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.13272, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.066001, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.220238, "worst_return": -0.118124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.114726, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.013595, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.294554, "worst_return": -0.035807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.395327, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.428176, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.632449, "worst_return": 0.003607, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"mixed", "direction": -0.63119, "energy": 3.764887, "activity_lines": [ 89.479998, 89.722726, 89.308549, 88.773105 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 80.449997, "volume": 3249361, "typical_volume": 1538416.65, "trend": 88.547491, "fair_value": 67.415747, "relative_strength": -15.369089, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.515112, "energy": 39.923809, "activity_lines": [ 86.406664, 87.990907, 88.583953, 88.219429 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 81.75, "volume": 1116685, "typical_volume": 1459203.6, "trend": 88.103048, "fair_value": 67.691956, "relative_strength": -15.156263, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.797976, "energy": 65.213182, "activity_lines": [ 84.319998, 86.670908, 88.000767, 87.780881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 84.650002, "volume": 835209, "typical_volume": 1419794.8, "trend": 87.742135, "fair_value": 67.997966, "relative_strength": -13.162091, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.884957, "energy": 63.528491, "activity_lines": [ 83.823333, 86.050908, 87.710345, 87.558104 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 83.0, "volume": 753741, "typical_volume": 1371144.25, "trend": 87.334432, "fair_value": 68.295523, "relative_strength": -16.191185, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.374263, "energy": 68.88473, "activity_lines": [ 83.163333, 85.239999, 87.253811, 87.25216 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }