{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fbe80e8e-bc54-4182-afbf-265663d499b1", "symbol": "UKO", "name": "Uko Microshops AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.6, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.057, "architecture_energy": 45.713, "architecture_maturity": 9.118, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.35, "rotation_up": 25.06, "upward_expansion": 10.6, "deceleration": 42.37, "rotation_down": 45.67, "downward_expansion": 76.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.083333, 6.088182, 6.124524, 6.160645 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.15, "trend_reference": 6.213333, "distance_from_trend": -0.010193, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.053614, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.015922, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.112409, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.08209, "excess_performance": -0.256336, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010193, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018172, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.015922, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044182, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.171124, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089366, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.08209, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.035484, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1, "relative_activity": 0.014514, "balance": 0.035484, "dry_up": 0.402758, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011882, "annualized_volatility": 0.14455, "from_high_reference": -0.108696, "from_low_reference": 0.23 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.213333, "fair_value_reference": 6.053614, "structural_low": 6.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032258, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-10", "close": 6.3, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-17", "close": 5.7, "volume": 3349, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": 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"direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.2, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 67.1, "trend": 6.278333, "fair_value": 6.05375, "relative_strength": -14.320332, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.648787, "energy": 25.177005, "activity_lines": [ 6.133333, 6.131818, 6.153095, 6.199355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.0, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 72.1, "trend": 6.25, "fair_value": 6.053086, "relative_strength": -18.025989, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.55345, "energy": 36.152048, "activity_lines": [ 6.093333, 6.100909, 6.136429, 6.181398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 72.1, "trend": 6.221667, "fair_value": 6.052439, "relative_strength": -17.309553, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.773901, "energy": 45.192284, "activity_lines": [ 6.06, 6.077273, 6.122143, 6.165269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.15, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 68.9, "trend": 6.213333, "fair_value": 6.053614, "relative_strength": -17.112409, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.056693, "energy": 45.713167, "activity_lines": [ 6.083333, 6.088182, 6.124524, 6.160645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }