{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fbf07fb0-42c1-4f26-a790-ab42be2d4ff0", "symbol": "GNE", "name": "Genesis Energy Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.369, "architecture_energy": 43.358, "architecture_maturity": 43.796, "architecture_confidence": 58.851, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.62, "rotation_up": 40.01, "upward_expansion": 66.2, "deceleration": 65.2, "rotation_down": 27.16, "downward_expansion": 18.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.587333, 2.591818, 2.548571, 2.483617 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.61, "trend_reference": 2.416903, "distance_from_trend": 0.079894, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.16753, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.204136, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.782543, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.094548, "excess_performance": 0.066274, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079894, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034183, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.204136, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054538, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.057825, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016132, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.094548, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.747004, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3054174, "relative_activity": 0.968277, "balance": 1.747004, "dry_up": 0.770092, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028146, "annualized_volatility": 0.177665, "from_high_reference": -0.022472, "from_low_reference": 0.225352 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.416903, "fair_value_reference": 2.16753, "structural_low": 2.13, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.007286, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.000661, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.031423, "worst_return": -0.069005, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.044909, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.060234, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.01444, "worst_return": -0.143219, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.0062, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016146, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.117973, "worst_return": -0.058573, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.034093, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027523, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.066479, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006515, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030568, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027778, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"gate": "up", "direction": 62.13589, "energy": 56.388788, "activity_lines": [ 2.595333, 2.58, 2.487286, 2.43432 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.6, "volume": 2453644, "typical_volume": 3284493.85, "trend": 2.392501, "fair_value": 2.159705, "relative_strength": 6.838706, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.56319, "energy": 51.695874, "activity_lines": [ 2.595333, 2.588545, 2.506238, 2.448275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.58, "volume": 2383913, "typical_volume": 3275687.85, "trend": 2.400954, "fair_value": 2.162106, "relative_strength": 5.278175, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.676142, "energy": 44.27478, "activity_lines": [ 2.588, 2.590909, 2.52181, 2.460371 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.56, "volume": 1824483, "typical_volume": 3254343.9, "trend": 2.408742, "fair_value": 2.164326, "relative_strength": 4.877678, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.544207, "energy": 39.857211, "activity_lines": [ 2.578667, 2.588, 2.533762, 2.470632 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.61, "volume": 3054174, "typical_volume": 3154236.6, "trend": 2.416903, "fair_value": 2.16753, "relative_strength": 5.782543, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.368694, "energy": 43.357917, "activity_lines": [ 2.587333, 2.591818, 2.548571, 2.483617 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }