{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fbf21b81-f08a-405d-b030-1087b8e6fa6f", "symbol": "TR8", "name": "TARRINARES FPO [TR8]", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.314, "architecture_energy": 71.514, "architecture_maturity": 46.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.007, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.45, "rotation_up": 10.7, "upward_expansion": 15.33, "deceleration": 37.45, "rotation_down": 71.53, "downward_expansion": 88.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.014867, 0.015982, 0.016752, 0.017667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.014, "trend_reference": 0.019533, "distance_from_trend": -0.283276, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.008929, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.567839, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.678156, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.391304, "excess_performance": -0.45501, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.283276, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105344, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.567839, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.364049, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.286782, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.328203, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.391304, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.534432, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1000000, "relative_activity": 0.452235, "balance": 0.534432, "dry_up": 1.017042, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.175824, "annualized_volatility": 0.947142, "from_high_reference": -0.548387, "from_low_reference": 2.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.019533, "fair_value_reference": 0.008929, "structural_low": 0.014, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.005066, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 4.0, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.833333, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 1.711038, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 4.0, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 2.333333, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 2.098378, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.333333, "worst_return": 2.333333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 2.166667, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 1.963547, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.166667, "worst_return": 2.166667, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-07-14", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.448276, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.222222, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 173619.85, "trend": 0.017, "fair_value": 0.078429, "relative_strength": -82.79304, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.955106, "energy": 66.249591, "activity_lines": [ 0.006, 0.006018, 0.008771, 0.011716 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 0.006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 168385.15, "trend": 0.016033, "fair_value": 0.077587, "relative_strength": -81.868198, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.614678, "energy": 62.615818, "activity_lines": [ 0.006, 0.005964, 0.008262, 0.011006 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 0.006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 167635.15, "trend": 0.015067, "fair_value": 0.076764, 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"activity_lines": [ 0.0156, 0.016545, 0.017067, 0.01806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.014, "volume": 1000000, "typical_volume": 2211239.3, "trend": 0.019533, "fair_value": 0.008929, "relative_strength": -28.678156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.313985, "energy": 71.51399, "activity_lines": [ 0.014867, 0.015982, 0.016752, 0.017667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }