{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fbf31f70-d6a2-4482-b9f7-c1f38401542c", "symbol": "6787", "name": "Kingray Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 76.1, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.029, "architecture_energy": 6.137, "architecture_maturity": 6.611, "architecture_confidence": 40.469, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 76.06, "rotation_up": 25.64, "upward_expansion": 46.55, "deceleration": 74.63, "rotation_down": 27.88, "downward_expansion": 29.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.880001, 33.609091, 34.107619, 33.039678 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 32.200001, "trend_reference": 30.996667, "distance_from_trend": 0.038821, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.531073, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.054663, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.174558, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.384946, "excess_performance": -0.056426, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038821, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120902, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.054663, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099798, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.221746, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00596, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.384946, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.55711, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2445740, "relative_activity": 0.377059, "balance": 1.55711, "dry_up": 0.727177, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.171285, "annualized_volatility": 0.819434, "from_high_reference": -0.384321, "from_low_reference": 0.526066 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.996667, "fair_value_reference": 30.531073, "structural_low": 22.1, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.102303, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.105701, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.144345, "worst_return": -0.172352, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.076471, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.284417, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.151786, "worst_return": -0.341429, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.244328, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.467595, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.202941, "worst_return": 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"active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06647, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130915, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020367, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.145969, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-27", 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"activity_lines": [ 33.776667, 33.929091, 33.951191, 32.158387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.650002, "volume": 10457006, "typical_volume": 6551724.9, "trend": 30.156667, "fair_value": 30.220817, "relative_strength": -7.659814, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.045319, "energy": 27.490983, "activity_lines": [ 34.893334, 34.609092, 34.447143, 32.671398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.0, "volume": 3682534, "typical_volume": 6667544.0, "trend": 30.46, "fair_value": 30.326586, "relative_strength": -17.24181, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.16648, "energy": 9.934731, "activity_lines": [ 34.253334, 34.370001, 34.44, 32.854839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.85, "volume": 2281666, "typical_volume": 6610036.8, "trend": 30.725, "fair_value": 30.423381, "relative_strength": -21.184756, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.433545, "energy": 8.591512, "activity_lines": [ 33.28, 33.96, 34.278572, 32.944516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 32.200001, "volume": 2445740, "typical_volume": 6486364.6, "trend": 30.996667, "fair_value": 30.531073, "relative_strength": -22.174558, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.02869, "energy": 6.136971, "activity_lines": [ 32.880001, 33.609091, 34.107619, 33.039678 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }