{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fbfe19ea-bbef-4c98-92b8-d71e160c55f5", "symbol": "AIA", "name": "iShares Asia 50 ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.188, "architecture_energy": 29.115, "architecture_maturity": 67.229, "architecture_confidence": 91.037, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.44, "rotation_up": 22.66, "upward_expansion": 57.71, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 33.47, "downward_expansion": 21.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 2322.73737, 2358.462092, 2337.097278, 2259.782204 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2322.060059, "trend_reference": 2154.318754, "distance_from_trend": 0.077863, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1634.968584, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.420248, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 16.576187, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.215738, "excess_performance": 0.270405, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077863, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11134, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.420248, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107405, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.165762, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061274, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.215738, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.758489, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 340, "relative_activity": 0.002894, "balance": 0.758489, "dry_up": 0.557581, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03635, "annualized_volatility": 0.276957, "from_high_reference": -0.079988, "from_low_reference": 0.499836 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2154.318754, "fair_value_reference": 1634.968584, "structural_low": 1905.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.088632, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.067762, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.224999, "worst_return": 0.021336, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.192492, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.21044, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.276035, "worst_return": 0.108949, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.415816, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.365709, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.415816, "worst_return": 0.415816, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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[ 2333.681364, 2371.688481, 2329.651142, 2247.988227 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2322.060059, "volume": 340, "typical_volume": 117485.1, "trend": 2154.318754, "fair_value": 1634.968584, "relative_strength": 16.576187, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.187802, "energy": 29.114841, "activity_lines": [ 2322.73737, 2358.462092, 2337.097278, 2259.782204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }