{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "fc0808ee-73c9-47e8-a77e-06d41bf99dee",
    "symbol": "XWEH",
    "name": "Xtrackers - Xtrackers MSCI World Swap UCITS ETF 4C - EUR Hedged",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 79.078,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 86.673,
    "architecture_energy": 65.868,
    "architecture_maturity": 61.775,
    "architecture_confidence": 66.544,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 15.02,
        "rotation_up": 55.63,
        "upward_expansion": 81.69,
        "deceleration": 68.52,
        "rotation_down": 27.34,
        "downward_expansion": 10.69
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        52.568667,
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        51.743215,
        50.841097
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 53.84,
    "trend_reference": 49.8445,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.080159,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 41.496026,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.297474,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -4.57502,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.112972,
    "excess_performance": -0.05792,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.080159,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.033314,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.297474,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.019195,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.04575,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.015483,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.112972,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 4.491231,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 6971,
      "relative_activity": 0.256754,
      "balance": 4.491231,
      "dry_up": 0.283209,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.016373,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.12324,
      "from_high_reference": 0.0,
      "from_low_reference": 0.214527
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 49.8445,
      "fair_value_reference": 41.496026,
      "structural_low": 44.970001,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 41,
        "median_return": 0.010711,
        "positive_rate": 0.731707,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.731707,
        "median_excess_return": 0.000236,
        "regime_survival": 0.756098,
        "best_return": 0.0881,
        "worst_return": -0.058291,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 14,
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        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": -0.010538,
        "regime_survival": 0.642857,
        "best_return": 0.079313,
        "worst_return": -0.065168,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
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        "positive_rate": 0.875,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.875,
        "median_excess_return": -0.002307,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
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        "worst_return": -0.150879,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.106237,
        "sufficient": false
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
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        "energy": 44.077451,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 64419.15,
        "trend": 47.5825,
        "fair_value": 39.679071,
        "relative_strength": -3.254314,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "volume": 19305,
        "typical_volume": 57646.75,
        "trend": 47.742333,
        "fair_value": 39.811346,
        "relative_strength": -3.026745,
        "stage": 3,
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        "energy": 82.775323,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "volume": 32553,
        "typical_volume": 58969.55,
        "trend": 47.908,
        "fair_value": 39.941122,
        "relative_strength": -2.490633,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "energy": 84.321647,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 64423.25,
        "trend": 48.0745,
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        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 64944.45,
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        "stage": 2,
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        "direction": 81.870953,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 63895.2,
        "trend": 48.420833,
        "fair_value": 40.347564,
        "relative_strength": -2.715728,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.329747,
        "energy": 84.846883,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "volume": 2210,
        "typical_volume": 62376.85,
        "trend": 48.576167,
        "fair_value": 40.472917,
        "relative_strength": -5.774646,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 52547.8,
        "trend": 48.921,
        "fair_value": 40.729006,
        "relative_strength": -5.536362,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.567344,
        "energy": 59.093816,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 48125.3,
        "trend": 49.079833,
        "fair_value": 40.86141,
        "relative_strength": -6.386719,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "energy": 63.376971,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 43239.05,
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        "fair_value": 40.989936,
        "relative_strength": -5.652824,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.102151,
        "energy": 70.583803,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 51.950001,
        "volume": 14168,
        "typical_volume": 38147.05,
        "trend": 49.398,
        "fair_value": 41.11343,
        "relative_strength": -5.087215,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.810418,
        "energy": 63.080436,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.087334,
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          51.063381,
          50.263011
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 51.900002,
        "volume": 2385,
        "typical_volume": 35815.95,
        "trend": 49.5325,
        "fair_value": 41.234615,
        "relative_strength": -4.88133,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.444382,
        "energy": 58.906929,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.044001,
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          51.252215,
          50.42443
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 51.82,
        "volume": 7233,
        "typical_volume": 30805.1,
        "trend": 49.669167,
        "fair_value": 41.35859,
        "relative_strength": -5.546693,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 58.733952,
        "energy": 51.091226,
        "activity_lines": [
          51.985334,
          51.954546,
          51.413667,
          50.572011
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 53.84,
        "volume": 6971,
        "typical_volume": 27150.45,
        "trend": 49.8445,
        "fair_value": 41.496026,
        "relative_strength": -4.57502,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.673069,
        "energy": 65.868199,
        "activity_lines": [
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          50.841097
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}