{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc0f919d-70e9-449b-8aa7-e28d573c5298", "symbol": "UKG5", "name": "L&G UK Gilt 0-5 Year UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 53.596, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.365, "architecture_energy": 53.306, "architecture_maturity": 12.477, "architecture_confidence": 84.205, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.66, "rotation_up": 16.76, "upward_expansion": 9.3, "deceleration": 43.9, "rotation_down": 63.45, "downward_expansion": 84.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 925.3215, 926.262458, 929.672923, 931.222566 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 927.75, "trend_reference": 933.312599, "distance_from_trend": -0.00596, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 936.924661, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.009792, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.941489, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.01098, "excess_performance": -0.062216, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00596, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007578, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.009792, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008737, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089415, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022111, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01098, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.05153, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26502, "relative_activity": 0.236813, "balance": 2.05153, "dry_up": 0.938253, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005866, "annualized_volatility": 0.035915, "from_high_reference": -0.033408, "from_low_reference": 0.006892 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 933.312599, "fair_value_reference": 936.924661, "structural_low": 921.4, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.001468, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.003794, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.028454, "worst_return": -0.030509, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.000575, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003944, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.021694, "worst_return": -0.018479, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.004165, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.037298, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.008856, "worst_return": -0.015556, "sufficient": false 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"direction": -65.418909, "energy": 68.683041, "activity_lines": [ 925.62864, 929.290339, 931.619513, 933.160278 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 923.2, "volume": 140974, "typical_volume": 118490.2, "trend": 935.123732, "fair_value": 936.772785, "relative_strength": -8.673444, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.880511, "energy": 75.179594, "activity_lines": [ 924.796787, 927.758015, 930.729618, 932.331505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 924.4, "volume": 34868, "typical_volume": 113142.6, "trend": 934.214822, "fair_value": 936.831261, "relative_strength": -9.326617, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.966373, "energy": 69.838467, "activity_lines": [ 924.41242, 926.593873, 930.020675, 931.639652 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 927.75, "volume": 26502, "typical_volume": 111911.15, "trend": 933.312599, "fair_value": 936.924661, "relative_strength": -8.941489, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.364621, "energy": 53.305679, "activity_lines": [ 925.3215, 926.262458, 929.672923, 931.222566 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }