{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc13748a-7168-49cd-a2bd-8844af32eb09", "symbol": "ALMER", "name": "Sapmer SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.239, "architecture_energy": 43.681, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.012, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.0, "rotation_up": 14.56, "upward_expansion": 6.32, "deceleration": 44.72, "rotation_down": 57.07, "downward_expansion": 77.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.386667, 4.468364, 4.526762, 4.645957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.6, "trend_reference": 4.857667, "distance_from_trend": -0.053043, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.131538, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.354978, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.302355, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.140187, "excess_performance": -0.193498, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.053043, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075845, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.354978, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041968, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203024, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021122, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.140187, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.402771, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 249, "relative_activity": 0.412457, "balance": 0.402771, "dry_up": 0.845619, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08796, "annualized_volatility": 0.460277, "from_high_reference": -0.38255, "from_low_reference": 0.144279 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.857667, "fair_value_reference": 7.131538, "structural_low": 4.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.02, "positive_rate": 0.322581, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": -0.03531, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.176471, "worst_return": -0.227273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.030154, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.065301, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.205882, "worst_return": -0.36, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.011555, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.017373, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.266667, "worst_return": -0.438596, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.124088, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.025974, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063492, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030769, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051471, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021127, "active": false 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.213508, "energy": 30.494614, "activity_lines": [ 4.597333, 4.570182, 4.689095, 4.859355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 4.78, "volume": 77, "typical_volume": 555.0, "trend": 5.053, "fair_value": 7.425385, "relative_strength": -19.558959, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.195947, "energy": 21.560844, "activity_lines": [ 4.677333, 4.601091, 4.684381, 4.840194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.68, "volume": 465, "typical_volume": 563.55, "trend": 5.058333, "fair_value": 7.359231, "relative_strength": -18.887069, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.460084, "energy": 18.6932, "activity_lines": [ 4.710667, 4.616, 4.672381, 4.816129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.18, "volume": 560, "typical_volume": 578.85, "trend": 5.004333, "fair_value": 7.300769, "relative_strength": -26.802916, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.392268, "energy": 31.373475, "activity_lines": [ 4.534667, 4.544, 4.615476, 4.759462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.24, "volume": 1232, "typical_volume": 621.45, "trend": 4.952333, "fair_value": 7.243333, "relative_strength": -25.290633, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.493442, "energy": 35.847298, "activity_lines": [ 4.413333, 4.494182, 4.56819, 4.710151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.26, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 609.05, "trend": 4.902667, "fair_value": 7.186667, "relative_strength": -25.201549, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.965726, "energy": 44.58552, "activity_lines": [ 4.329333, 4.447273, 4.528571, 4.665484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.6, "volume": 249, "typical_volume": 603.7, "trend": 4.857667, "fair_value": 7.131538, "relative_strength": -20.302355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.238894, "energy": 43.680953, "activity_lines": [ 4.386667, 4.468364, 4.526762, 4.645957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }