{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc15fe68-9101-427f-8923-d93780a00402", "symbol": "ALDF", "name": "Aldel Financial II Inc. Class A Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 88.413, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.495, "architecture_energy": 63.538, "architecture_maturity": 33.377, "architecture_confidence": 72.782, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.68, "rotation_up": 62.33, "upward_expansion": 87.35, "deceleration": 62.2, "rotation_down": 23.56, "downward_expansion": 11.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.728, 10.716, 10.687242, 10.657163 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.73, "trend_reference": 10.617087, "distance_from_trend": 0.010635, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.407934, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.030944, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.253833, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.020932, "excess_performance": -0.166521, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010635, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00616, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.030944, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004709, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112538, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04752, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.020932, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.748212, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 137, "relative_activity": 0.001978, "balance": 0.748212, "dry_up": 0.678551, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003083, "annualized_volatility": 0.015036, "from_high_reference": -0.004638, "from_low_reference": 0.041748 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.617087, "fair_value_reference": 10.407934, "structural_low": 10.51, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.001873, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.061989, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.001873, "worst_return": 0.001873, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004682, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-13", "close": 9.9, "volume": 326, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 9.92, "volume": 1015406, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", 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"Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.982562, "energy": 63.53655, "activity_lines": [ 10.705333, 10.691636, 10.660033, 10.631686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.74, "volume": 81110, "typical_volume": 73235.0, "trend": 10.601753, "fair_value": 10.400356, "relative_strength": -6.838716, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.601519, "energy": 70.472797, "activity_lines": [ 10.719333, 10.702909, 10.670592, 10.64112 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.73, "volume": 13489, "typical_volume": 70320.65, "trend": 10.609587, "fair_value": 10.40419, "relative_strength": -7.087584, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.01943, "energy": 65.045578, "activity_lines": [ 10.726, 10.710182, 10.679293, 10.649394 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.73, "volume": 137, "typical_volume": 69259.75, "trend": 10.617087, "fair_value": 10.407934, "relative_strength": -11.253833, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.494597, "energy": 63.537897, "activity_lines": [ 10.728, 10.716, 10.687242, 10.657163 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }