{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc17117f-4d9d-47a1-9e37-59456783345c", "symbol": "600843", "name": "Shang Gong Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.931, "architecture_energy": 76.174, "architecture_maturity": 66.328, "architecture_confidence": 91.541, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.76, "rotation_up": 11.76, "upward_expansion": 17.89, "deceleration": 37.73, "rotation_down": 68.48, "downward_expansion": 88.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.799333, 7.227091, 7.726619, 8.298882 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.08, "trend_reference": 9.184, "distance_from_trend": -0.229094, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.271223, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.236347, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.178055, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.362736, "excess_performance": -0.319532, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.229094, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131126, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.236347, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231915, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.311781, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045057, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.362736, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.35286, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34720930, "relative_activity": 0.815343, "balance": 0.35286, "dry_up": 0.961002, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126141, "annualized_volatility": 0.550359, "from_high_reference": -0.496085, "from_low_reference": 0.187919 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.184, "fair_value_reference": 9.271223, "structural_low": 5.96, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.013504, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.019848, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.285354, "worst_return": -0.179196, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.014141, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.043758, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.078283, "worst_return": -0.326923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.084485, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.069786, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.131386, "worst_return": -0.044774, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.068131, "energy": 54.613996, "activity_lines": [ 7.502, 7.777636, 8.233381, 8.839269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.31, "volume": 41106670, "typical_volume": 43067601.6, "trend": 9.537333, "fair_value": 9.254296, "relative_strength": -37.886121, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.257647, "energy": 74.348133, "activity_lines": [ 7.030667, 7.475455, 8.00119, 8.619742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.85, "volume": 40749908, "typical_volume": 43047502.3, "trend": 9.366, "fair_value": 9.26136, "relative_strength": -32.20366, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.554341, "energy": 78.391425, "activity_lines": [ 6.822667, 7.315091, 7.843524, 8.446366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.08, "volume": 34720930, "typical_volume": 42584425.45, "trend": 9.184, "fair_value": 9.271223, "relative_strength": -31.178055, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.931183, "energy": 76.173526, "activity_lines": [ 6.799333, 7.227091, 7.726619, 8.298882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }