{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc1b7599-d320-400f-8f3d-e9296a4c1bd8", "symbol": "EFSC", "name": "Enterprise Financial Services", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.362, "architecture_energy": 47.491, "architecture_maturity": 57.677, "architecture_confidence": 66.929, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.57, "rotation_up": 53.44, "upward_expansion": 80.27, "deceleration": 66.89, "rotation_down": 23.55, "downward_expansion": 6.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.192, 65.800961, 63.640861, 61.773765 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 65.91, "trend_reference": 59.730793, "distance_from_trend": 0.103451, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.734609, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.325234, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.257152, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.113325, "excess_performance": -0.074128, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.103451, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066487, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.325234, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075442, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.002572, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103602, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.113325, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.905002, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1112099, "relative_activity": 0.882064, "balance": 0.905002, "dry_up": 0.96828, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052679, "annualized_volatility": 0.221672, "from_high_reference": -0.04103, "from_low_reference": 0.310143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.730793, "fair_value_reference": 49.734609, "structural_low": 51.510986, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.030357, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.036634, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.149934, "worst_return": -0.172488, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.021905, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.072473, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.141027, "worst_return": -0.299242, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.085791, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.132474, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.202731, "worst_return": -0.189135, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-17", "close": 67.39, "volume": 1114770, "typical_volume": 1283543.0, "trend": 58.539103, "fair_value": 49.206186, "relative_strength": 6.009326, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.730397, "energy": 79.801135, "activity_lines": [ 66.102667, 64.584905, 61.952259, 60.391909 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 65.99, "volume": 1605351, "typical_volume": 1311262.2, "trend": 58.91137, "fair_value": 49.380717, "relative_strength": 5.501275, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.620691, "energy": 53.186521, "activity_lines": [ 66.266, 65.107809, 62.566814, 60.872612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.31, "volume": 1050976, "typical_volume": 1319234.65, "trend": 59.340763, "fair_value": 49.560172, "relative_strength": 5.410634, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.138175, "energy": 51.288668, "activity_lines": [ 66.277333, 65.543546, 63.154474, 61.349943 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.91, "volume": 1112099, "typical_volume": 1260791.8, "trend": 59.730793, "fair_value": 49.734609, "relative_strength": -0.257152, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.362064, "energy": 47.490642, "activity_lines": [ 66.192, 65.800961, 63.640861, 61.773765 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }