{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc21b136-423c-4bb0-8a4f-c5df10a11f05", "symbol": "4573", "name": "Gmt Global Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.447, "architecture_energy": 10.452, "architecture_maturity": 52.443, "architecture_confidence": 71.597, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.78, "rotation_up": 20.44, "upward_expansion": 40.45, "deceleration": 80.16, "rotation_down": 30.24, "downward_expansion": 32.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 367.566667, 375.527273, 394.08428, 374.801763 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 391.0, "trend_reference": 320.070737, "distance_from_trend": 0.221605, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 97.211938, "distance_from_fair_value": 3.02214, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 47.162871, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 3.899749, "excess_performance": 3.458377, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.221605, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.485977, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 3.02214, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.090481, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.471629, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.754785, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 3.899749, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.9418, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3054112, "relative_activity": 0.718947, "balance": 0.9418, "dry_up": 0.579135, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.190169, "annualized_volatility": 1.368528, "from_high_reference": -0.426686, "from_low_reference": 5.741379 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 320.070737, "fair_value_reference": 97.211938, "structural_low": 70.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.086287, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.214286, "median_excess_return": -0.086291, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.519737, "worst_return": -0.14127, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.109123, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.037483, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.707237, "worst_return": -0.303132, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.573668, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.655539, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 4.567081, "worst_return": -0.24508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.332143, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.279452, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102863, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.261745, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029781, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": 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383.033333, 392.76444, 403.739358, 362.981476 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 324.5, "volume": 2357261, "typical_volume": 5185259.65, "trend": 299.667403, "fair_value": 92.570913, "relative_strength": 33.722772, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.059363, "energy": 8.67827, "activity_lines": [ 361.466667, 378.309493, 397.360681, 365.130675 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 368.0, "volume": 2093760, "typical_volume": 4386868.05, "trend": 309.430737, "fair_value": 94.817707, "relative_strength": 45.697238, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.605252, "energy": 13.776308, "activity_lines": [ 359.466667, 374.254545, 394.679624, 369.53923 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 391.0, "volume": 3054112, "typical_volume": 4248034.65, "trend": 320.070737, "fair_value": 97.211938, "relative_strength": 47.162871, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.446846, "energy": 10.451633, "activity_lines": [ 367.566667, 375.527273, 394.08428, 374.801763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }