{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc2d2c81-21b6-4fa1-acd5-2718f442f0aa", "symbol": "6767", "name": "Wiltrom Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.552, "architecture_energy": 54.278, "architecture_maturity": 36.641, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.28, "rotation_up": 18.6, "upward_expansion": 9.68, "deceleration": 44.1, "rotation_down": 61.93, "downward_expansion": 85.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.82, 25.093637, 25.597143, 26.237635 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 24.799999, "trend_reference": 27.045, "distance_from_trend": -0.08301, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.403205, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.234644, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.799167, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.144828, "excess_performance": -0.5862, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.08301, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035256, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.234644, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025561, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.377992, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005715, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.144828, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.271629, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12000, "relative_activity": 0.189163, "balance": 0.271629, "dry_up": 0.532021, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048542, "annualized_volatility": 0.190549, "from_high_reference": -0.236923, "from_low_reference": 0.033333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.045, "fair_value_reference": 32.403205, "structural_low": 24.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.006494, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": -0.015022, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.275214, "worst_return": -0.101078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0373, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.130309, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.174165, "worst_return": -0.105072, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.058661, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.034358, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.110732, "worst_return": -0.041591, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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25.336667, 25.714546, 26.580953, 27.105699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.4, "volume": 52000, "typical_volume": 86490.55, "trend": 27.546667, "fair_value": 33.032051, "relative_strength": -37.589036, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.210991, "energy": 44.270182, "activity_lines": [ 25.69, 25.757273, 26.490714, 27.026667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.450001, "volume": 10000, "typical_volume": 82540.55, "trend": 27.46, "fair_value": 32.886538, "relative_strength": -35.16829, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.127347, "energy": 37.44878, "activity_lines": [ 25.68, 25.652728, 26.322619, 26.891398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.6, "volume": 42000, "typical_volume": 82538.15, "trend": 27.341667, "fair_value": 32.75609, "relative_strength": -37.914435, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.639269, "energy": 39.879608, "activity_lines": [ 25.39, 25.432727, 26.095, 26.706882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.950001, "volume": 32000, "typical_volume": 74438.15, "trend": 27.241667, "fair_value": 32.643269, "relative_strength": -35.371705, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.623666, "energy": 41.350646, "activity_lines": [ 25.243334, 25.319091, 25.92381, 26.552581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.700001, "volume": 49000, "typical_volume": 67688.15, "trend": 27.14, "fair_value": 32.523077, "relative_strength": -36.725707, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.246036, "energy": 48.591367, "activity_lines": [ 24.960001, 25.18091, 25.748096, 26.388602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 24.799999, "volume": 12000, "typical_volume": 63437.35, "trend": 27.045, "fair_value": 32.403205, "relative_strength": -37.799167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.552402, "energy": 54.27753, "activity_lines": [ 24.82, 25.093637, 25.597143, 26.237635 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }