{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc3028d2-2c81-433d-b9b9-95f7a57b35d6", "symbol": "QFE", "name": "QuickFee Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.035, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.927, "architecture_energy": 7.986, "architecture_maturity": 23.151, "architecture_confidence": 55.221, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.36, "rotation_up": 28.05, "upward_expansion": 18.49, "deceleration": 37.78, "rotation_down": 26.99, "downward_expansion": 57.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.072067, 0.0716, 0.07169, 0.0723 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.075, "trend_reference": 0.072342, "distance_from_trend": 0.036746, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.03744, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.003232, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 16.122595, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.066659, "excess_performance": 0.002953, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036746, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040088, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.003232, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101397, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.161226, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.307883, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.066659, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.979875, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 124224, "relative_activity": 0.298487, "balance": 0.979875, "dry_up": 1.436792, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044103, "annualized_volatility": 0.340657, "from_high_reference": -0.085366, "from_low_reference": 4.203275 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.072342, "fair_value_reference": 0.03744, "structural_low": 0.062, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.038455, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.230769, "median_excess_return": -0.028025, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.277773, "worst_return": -0.20832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.018489, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.095621, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.575358, "worst_return": -0.145158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.138867, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.126276, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.369857, "worst_return": -0.209662, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.351493, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.42638, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.319414, "worst_return": -0.383572, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.296889, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.363626, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043483, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136378, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.156648, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.307709, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.304322, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.53334, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", 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"volume": 1309292, "typical_volume": 489831.9, "trend": 0.071858, "fair_value": 0.036472, "relative_strength": 18.520063, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.942709, "energy": 23.819608, "activity_lines": [ 0.0704, 0.070618, 0.071848, 0.072219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.07, "volume": 771341, "typical_volume": 458396.1, "trend": 0.071848, "fair_value": 0.036779, "relative_strength": 18.495058, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.890183, "energy": 27.573643, "activity_lines": [ 0.069933, 0.070527, 0.071552, 0.072099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.072, "volume": 186993, "typical_volume": 440411.75, "trend": 0.072029, "fair_value": 0.037098, "relative_strength": 17.060513, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.489785, "energy": 16.355353, "activity_lines": [ 0.070467, 0.0708, 0.071471, 0.072109 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.075, "volume": 124224, "typical_volume": 416178.85, "trend": 0.072342, "fair_value": 0.03744, "relative_strength": 16.122595, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.926755, "energy": 7.985645, "activity_lines": [ 0.072067, 0.0716, 0.07169, 0.0723 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }