{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc317c2b-2147-433e-9df0-867a8e29273a", "symbol": "IUSP", "name": "iShares US Property Yield UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.097, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.101, "architecture_energy": 55.758, "architecture_maturity": 60.756, "architecture_confidence": 56.19, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.75, "rotation_up": 55.88, "upward_expansion": 79.81, "deceleration": 70.58, "rotation_down": 22.5, "downward_expansion": 8.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.685333, 29.553636, 28.963977, 28.37237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 29.129999, "trend_reference": 27.550184, "distance_from_trend": 0.057343, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.32645, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.150181, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.101098, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.142155, "excess_performance": -0.028737, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057343, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061172, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.150181, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026308, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051011, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019787, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.142155, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.976828, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 98993, "relative_activity": 2.083697, "balance": 0.976828, "dry_up": 2.106788, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027918, "annualized_volatility": 0.151495, "from_high_reference": -0.051912, "from_low_reference": 0.227306 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.550184, "fair_value_reference": 25.32645, "structural_low": 25.338942, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.008686, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.010822, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.070955, "worst_return": -0.070297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.031096, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.009221, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.11694, "worst_return": -0.094916, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.10695, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.069817, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.172244, "worst_return": -0.079224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-03", "close": 29.235001, "volume": 635, "typical_volume": 34184.1, "trend": 26.669196, "fair_value": 25.105917, "relative_strength": -3.638934, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.518366, "energy": 82.883523, "activity_lines": [ 29.149667, 28.749391, 28.074105, 27.506647 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 29.040001, "volume": 67902, "typical_volume": 35890.6, "trend": 26.825453, "fair_value": 25.146994, "relative_strength": -3.744272, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.113745, "energy": 63.862753, "activity_lines": [ 29.157667, 28.862059, 28.21592, 27.659602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.205, "volume": 176745, "typical_volume": 42083.0, "trend": 27.020707, "fair_value": 25.1919, "relative_strength": 1.604649, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.763339, "energy": 72.788288, "activity_lines": [ 29.521, 29.159398, 28.456569, 27.877637 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.66, "volume": 81379, "typical_volume": 43861.2, "trend": 27.237693, "fair_value": 25.241381, "relative_strength": 3.322808, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.811323, "energy": 74.981438, "activity_lines": [ 29.960334, 29.496637, 28.725223, 28.11243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.549999, "volume": 43243, "typical_volume": 44037.95, "trend": 27.413248, "fair_value": 25.284825, "relative_strength": -1.00606, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.901672, "energy": 62.451718, "activity_lines": [ 29.888, 29.575455, 28.870976, 28.261611 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.129999, "volume": 98993, "typical_volume": 47508.35, "trend": 27.550184, "fair_value": 25.32645, "relative_strength": -5.101098, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.101248, "energy": 55.758304, "activity_lines": [ 29.685333, 29.553636, 28.963977, 28.37237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }