{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc32a2b5-5723-4e16-a359-f5d369b3a5e9", "symbol": "8070", "name": "Chang Wah Electromaterials Inc.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.159, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 5.736, "architecture_energy": 15.273, "architecture_maturity": 47.897, "architecture_confidence": 77.63, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.66, "rotation_up": 16.5, "upward_expansion": 40.56, "deceleration": 86.3, "rotation_down": 43.4, "downward_expansion": 36.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.873334, 49.530841, 50.047262, 48.732034 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 49.650002, "trend_reference": 47.055592, "distance_from_trend": 0.055135, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.945105, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.242956, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.629953, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.198969, "excess_performance": -0.242403, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055135, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065288, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.242956, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097515, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1963, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09621, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.198969, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.98528, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11202411, "relative_activity": 0.373399, "balance": 0.98528, "dry_up": 0.451967, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115862, "annualized_volatility": 0.462798, "from_high_reference": -0.219762, "from_low_reference": 0.364505 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.055592, "fair_value_reference": 39.945105, "structural_low": 37.891397, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.005415, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.01301, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.374853, "worst_return": -0.142355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.072334, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.056596, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.330396, "worst_return": -0.243369, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.074595, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.013869, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.051711, "worst_return": -0.07535, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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{ "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 52.700001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 29391366.4, "trend": 46.104296, "fair_value": 39.266074, "relative_strength": -17.044667, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.365928, "energy": 44.611076, "activity_lines": [ 54.256416, 53.549489, 50.315156, 48.342888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.099998, "volume": 21353528, "typical_volume": 30031772.15, "trend": 46.246464, "fair_value": 39.394489, "relative_strength": -18.952572, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.035749, "energy": 25.431309, "activity_lines": [ 52.113333, 52.894725, 50.35409, 48.471643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.700001, "volume": 14223344, "typical_volume": 30048534.75, "trend": 46.504319, "fair_value": 39.528959, "relative_strength": -20.810001, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.456638, "energy": 18.580796, "activity_lines": [ 50.313333, 52.137641, 50.325142, 48.56542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.650002, "volume": 17432307, "typical_volume": 30200965.75, "trend": 46.698662, "fair_value": 39.655944, "relative_strength": -22.616783, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.873996, "energy": 18.335656, "activity_lines": [ 48.316667, 50.932043, 50.071465, 48.510302 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.349998, "volume": 11380125, "typical_volume": 30199243.55, "trend": 46.864504, "fair_value": 39.792479, "relative_strength": -21.172557, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.652893, "energy": 22.216275, "activity_lines": [ 47.423333, 49.992639, 49.963177, 48.552324 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 49.650002, "volume": 11202411, "typical_volume": 30001202.1, "trend": 47.055592, "fair_value": 39.945105, "relative_strength": -19.629953, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.735746, "energy": 15.273298, "activity_lines": [ 47.873334, 49.530841, 50.047262, 48.732034 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }