{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc349b23-c8f1-4fd5-93c4-cd04dc7ab85f", "symbol": "USE3", "name": "WisdomTree Short USD Long EUR 3x Daily", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.647, "architecture_energy": 37.319, "architecture_maturity": 71.339, "architecture_confidence": 65.75, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.75, "rotation_up": 24.43, "upward_expansion": 16.46, "deceleration": 65.18, "rotation_down": 46.2, "downward_expansion": 68.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.988733, 6.979418, 7.121562, 7.222065 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.103, "trend_reference": 7.373233, "distance_from_trend": -0.036651, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.181187, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.010888, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.645346, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.097688, "excess_performance": -0.26858, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.036651, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028764, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.010888, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068082, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.196453, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06377, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.097688, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.644964, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28001, "relative_activity": 0.352899, "balance": 0.644964, "dry_up": 0.628792, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031254, "annualized_volatility": 0.159005, "from_high_reference": -0.15531, "from_low_reference": 0.063323 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.373233, "fair_value_reference": 7.181187, "structural_low": 6.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.009698, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.028278, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.126242, "worst_return": -0.111781, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.062133, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.087232, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.258866, "worst_return": -0.209921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.015109, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.110841, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.180649, "worst_return": -0.323425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.11043, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.14223, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.199523, "worst_return": -0.425139, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002385, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030242, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010155, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067722, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039306, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008197, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.121382, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.062133, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.123971, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.050492, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048768, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033721, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.085843, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.027652, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.38643, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 7.517459, "fair_value": 9.699455, "relative_strength": -4.740917, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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-20.836438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.257948, "energy": 77.860002, "activity_lines": [ 6.9268, 7.0282, 7.1991, 7.305731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.831, "volume": 37128, "typical_volume": 96151.2, "trend": 7.4153, "fair_value": 7.188756, "relative_strength": -20.931244, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.755884, "energy": 76.276956, "activity_lines": [ 6.888933, 6.9752, 7.156538, 7.265772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.024, "volume": 71756, "typical_volume": 86717.5, "trend": 7.389167, "fair_value": 7.184357, "relative_strength": -18.737134, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.502228, "energy": 49.74844, "activity_lines": [ 6.928733, 6.967491, 7.1351, 7.240527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.103, "volume": 28001, "typical_volume": 79345.75, "trend": 7.373233, "fair_value": 7.181187, "relative_strength": -19.645346, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.646764, "energy": 37.318812, "activity_lines": [ 6.988733, 6.979418, 7.121562, 7.222065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }