{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc39fa69-473f-4084-bf83-bccc766a222a", "symbol": "LMG", "name": "Latrobe Magnesium Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.322, "architecture_energy": 73.39, "architecture_maturity": 72.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.377, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.98, "rotation_up": 12.44, "upward_expansion": 14.43, "deceleration": 42.0, "rotation_down": 78.67, "downward_expansion": 92.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.011067, 0.012145, 0.014219, 0.015495 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.01, "trend_reference": 0.0172, "distance_from_trend": -0.418605, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.030225, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.669144, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -54.785725, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.5, "excess_performance": -0.563706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.418605, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184834, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.669144, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200756, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.547857, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.438517, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.5, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.053634, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43573173, "relative_activity": 2.639741, "balance": 0.053634, "dry_up": 2.221413, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.25, "annualized_volatility": 0.528387, "from_high_reference": -0.772727, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0172, "fair_value_reference": 0.030225, "structural_low": 0.008, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.05641, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.079611, "regime_survival": 0.861111, "best_return": 0.545455, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.171717, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.149657, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.578947, "worst_return": -0.481481, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.020833, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.032924, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 4.263158, "worst_return": -0.592593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.212121, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.232143, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.731707, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.5625, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071429, 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"typical_volume": 13604142.4, "trend": 0.018067, "fair_value": 0.030808, "relative_strength": -45.636015, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.638, "energy": 65.433425, "activity_lines": [ 0.012467, 0.013491, 0.015329, 0.016452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.011, "volume": 51091005, "typical_volume": 15569749.25, "trend": 0.017767, "fair_value": 0.030513, "relative_strength": -48.978266, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.286542, "energy": 63.987811, "activity_lines": [ 0.011867, 0.012836, 0.014805, 0.015996 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.01, "volume": 43573173, "typical_volume": 16506611.15, "trend": 0.0172, "fair_value": 0.030225, "relative_strength": -54.785725, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.321623, "energy": 73.389952, "activity_lines": [ 0.011067, 0.012145, 0.014219, 0.015495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }