{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc3c8e30-eb72-4371-a12b-c8696a392b47", "symbol": "1303", "name": "Electrical Industries Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.957, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.389, "architecture_energy": 35.057, "architecture_maturity": 7.499, "architecture_confidence": 43.128, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.05, "rotation_up": 22.75, "upward_expansion": 12.99, "deceleration": 51.41, "rotation_down": 54.8, "downward_expansion": 52.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.463099, 14.650171, 15.309788, 15.460374 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.9, "trend_reference": 15.184544, "distance_from_trend": -0.018739, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.894147, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.887474, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 14.498821, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.126196, "excess_performance": 0.158025, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018739, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086833, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.887474, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.633586, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.144988, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.354416, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.126196, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.951323, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12883360, "relative_activity": 0.7736, "balance": 0.951323, "dry_up": 1.171835, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078745, "annualized_volatility": 0.353366, "from_high_reference": -0.220999, "from_low_reference": 0.792639 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.184544, "fair_value_reference": 7.894147, "structural_low": 12.841504, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.003534, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.0318, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.076794, "worst_return": -0.053512, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.14083, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.141361, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.316778, "worst_return": -0.035117, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.448183, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.321839, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.903171, "worst_return": -0.006806, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.174359, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 2.647884, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.189744, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.172434, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.157104, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.283321, 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16.160441, 15.578934 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 14.82, "volume": 30898615, "typical_volume": 17299764.4, "trend": 14.65325, "fair_value": 7.483891, "relative_strength": 19.329046, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.290168, "energy": 15.651097, "activity_lines": [ 15.215333, 15.544909, 16.050852, 15.597569 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.755335, "volume": 14382607, "typical_volume": 17224010.7, "trend": 14.756234, "fair_value": 7.568463, "relative_strength": 17.810653, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.775556, "energy": 20.503081, "activity_lines": [ 14.982445, 15.326243, 15.931307, 15.604155 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.724049, "volume": 18748486, "typical_volume": 17423782.1, "trend": 14.83951, "fair_value": 7.64586, "relative_strength": 9.543855, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.376839, "energy": 51.235511, "activity_lines": [ 14.495439, 14.981973, 15.711731, 15.537562 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.705753, "volume": 24554598, "typical_volume": 16688181.05, "trend": 14.945731, "fair_value": 7.729577, "relative_strength": 15.478326, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.141202, "energy": 41.206447, "activity_lines": [ 14.472731, 14.876666, 15.588887, 15.528933 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.03145, "volume": 21875406, "typical_volume": 16224169.65, "trend": 15.04838, "fair_value": 7.809, "relative_strength": 11.42279, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.950774, "energy": 49.262528, "activity_lines": [ 14.298872, 14.670109, 15.405648, 15.469947 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.9, "volume": 12883360, "typical_volume": 16653769.65, "trend": 15.184544, "fair_value": 7.894147, "relative_strength": 14.498821, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.388703, "energy": 35.056868, "activity_lines": [ 14.463099, 14.650171, 15.309788, 15.460374 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }