{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc431f4c-4ff9-4483-bdca-439f2d8772d2", "symbol": "EDGH", "name": "3EDGE DYNAMIC HARD ASSETS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.071, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.66, "architecture_energy": 19.122, "architecture_maturity": 32.953, "architecture_confidence": 59.163, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.85, "rotation_up": 35.13, "upward_expansion": 21.17, "deceleration": 44.02, "rotation_down": 19.68, "downward_expansion": 55.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.322847, 32.963704, 33.353421, 33.557175 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 34.01, "trend_reference": 33.609477, "distance_from_trend": 0.011917, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.553505, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.191097, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.006442, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.050664, "excess_performance": -0.074961, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011917, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028662, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.191097, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075143, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040064, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092498, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.050664, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.469736, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 161841, "relative_activity": 0.720641, "balance": 1.469736, "dry_up": 0.449716, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024788, "annualized_volatility": 0.123042, "from_high_reference": -0.053795, "from_low_reference": 0.308716 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.609477, "fair_value_reference": 28.553505, "structural_low": 31.4, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009196, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042241, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028362, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027626, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 32.8127, "volume": 1091912, "typical_volume": 234068.25, "trend": 33.291094, "fair_value": 28.352446, "relative_strength": -4.781436, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.235051, "energy": 69.267764, "activity_lines": [ 32.398233, 32.89814, 33.575456, 33.602699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.74, "volume": 100471, "typical_volume": 233807.85, "trend": 33.373034, "fair_value": 28.399122, "relative_strength": -3.571212, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.436371, "energy": 50.23173, "activity_lines": [ 32.504387, 32.76826, 33.460426, 33.567144 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.15, "volume": 66194, "typical_volume": 225821.05, "trend": 33.434707, "fair_value": 28.449131, "relative_strength": -1.92475, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.62441, "energy": 29.792659, "activity_lines": [ 32.75054, 32.758302, 33.393206, 33.552755 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.0125, "volume": 75482, "typical_volume": 222907.45, "trend": 33.519277, "fair_value": 28.496666, "relative_strength": -3.462339, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.16394, "energy": 15.530668, "activity_lines": [ 32.90886, 32.756253, 33.321367, 33.525516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.01, "volume": 161841, "typical_volume": 224579.3, "trend": 33.609477, "fair_value": 28.553505, "relative_strength": -4.006442, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.659958, "energy": 19.121792, "activity_lines": [ 33.322847, 32.963704, 33.353421, 33.557175 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }