{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "fc50e744-bdac-4a44-8762-46604ef60f05",
    "symbol": "600808",
    "name": "Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited",
    "exchange": "SHH",
    "country": "CN",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "000001.SS",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -62.868,
    "architecture_energy": 60.973,
    "architecture_maturity": 98.886,
    "architecture_confidence": 93.889,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 12.42,
        "rotation_up": 29.46,
        "upward_expansion": 12.0,
        "deceleration": 60.93,
        "rotation_down": 48.8,
        "downward_expansion": 83.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        2.54,
        2.551091,
        2.830857,
        3.106301
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 2.58,
    "trend_reference": 3.452667,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.252751,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 3.012692,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.143623,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -28.873118,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.384248,
    "excess_performance": -0.341044,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.252751,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.12019,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.143623,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.401386,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.288731,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.198041,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.384248,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.360681,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 313380831,
      "relative_activity": 1.198351,
      "balance": 0.360681,
      "dry_up": 1.502676,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 6
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.091831,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.3559,
      "from_high_reference": -0.431718,
      "from_low_reference": 0.107296
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 3.452667,
      "fair_value_reference": 3.012692,
      "structural_low": 2.33,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 20,
        "median_return": -0.033824,
        "positive_rate": 0.2,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": -0.025342,
        "regime_survival": 0.8,
        "best_return": 0.226519,
        "worst_return": -0.121795,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.022059,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.285714,
        "median_excess_return": 0.038726,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.449541,
        "worst_return": -0.205019,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.01061,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": 0.074294,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
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        "worst_return": -0.187482,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.176536,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.049281,
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        "best_return": 0.677885,
        "worst_return": -0.202971,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2023-06-02",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2023-08-11",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "Extended",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.268085,
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.210526,
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      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "stage": 4,
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        "direction": -75.359965,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 2.47,
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        "typical_volume": 261424533.0,
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        "fair_value": 3.012436,
        "relative_strength": -30.496331,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
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          2.467333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 2.62,
        "volume": 426648521,
        "typical_volume": 265510311.0,
        "trend": 3.507333,
        "fair_value": 3.012692,
        "relative_strength": -26.214815,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -65.700199,
        "energy": 64.831573,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.514,
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          2.888905,
          3.166129
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 2.58,
        "volume": 313380831,
        "typical_volume": 261510046.75,
        "trend": 3.452667,
        "fair_value": 3.012692,
        "relative_strength": -28.873118,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -62.86767,
        "energy": 60.972719,
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          2.54,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}