{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc521457-4a50-4135-b29a-c60198fc21df", "symbol": "002208", "name": "Hefei Urban Construction Development Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.852, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.56, "architecture_energy": 34.92, "architecture_maturity": 58.998, "architecture_confidence": 73.36, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.43, "rotation_up": 19.58, "upward_expansion": 20.95, "deceleration": 56.08, "rotation_down": 67.59, "downward_expansion": 43.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.503333, 14.511818, 15.467095, 15.289978 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.44, "trend_reference": 15.061333, "distance_from_trend": -0.240439, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.478818, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.349245, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.476951, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.17934, "excess_performance": -0.18674, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.240439, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093276, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.349245, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.50111, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12477, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.256193, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.17934, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.133061, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 278013479, "relative_activity": 1.055123, "balance": 1.133061, "dry_up": 1.447817, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.330016, "annualized_volatility": 1.02047, "from_high_reference": -0.566009, "from_low_reference": 0.793103 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.061333, "fair_value_reference": 8.478818, "structural_low": 10.29, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.010619, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.039806, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.63336, "worst_return": -0.255299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.005823, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.081375, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.196045, "worst_return": -0.035118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.028617, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035497, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.613929, "worst_return": -0.237264, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.102173, "energy": 9.287195, "activity_lines": [ 15.749333, 16.537454, 16.300238, 15.811677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.68, "volume": 464008191, "typical_volume": 263756674.9, "trend": 15.092667, "fair_value": 8.446822, "relative_strength": -13.568987, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.551408, "energy": 28.50768, "activity_lines": [ 13.798667, 15.355636, 15.835905, 15.525634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.44, "volume": 278013479, "typical_volume": 263489080.45, "trend": 15.061333, "fair_value": 8.478818, "relative_strength": -12.476951, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.559671, "energy": 34.920249, "activity_lines": [ 12.503333, 14.511818, 15.467095, 15.289978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }