{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc539048-8962-4065-8c33-6ae9f4337d64", "symbol": "600572", "name": "Zhejiang CONBA Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 52.135, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 5.909, "architecture_energy": 25.184, "architecture_maturity": 79.49, "architecture_confidence": 58.615, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.95, "rotation_up": 48.64, "upward_expansion": 36.36, "deceleration": 39.19, "rotation_down": 14.12, "downward_expansion": 42.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.291333, 4.193325, 4.16976, 4.219769 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.34, "trend_reference": 4.298343, "distance_from_trend": 0.009691, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.487618, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.032895, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.043672, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.037694, "excess_performance": 0.00551, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009691, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03865, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.032895, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051197, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010437, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125816, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.037694, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.169642, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 250653987, "relative_activity": 1.120029, "balance": 1.169642, "dry_up": 1.295227, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039574, "annualized_volatility": 0.195702, "from_high_reference": -0.160542, "from_low_reference": 0.118557 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.298343, "fair_value_reference": 4.487618, "structural_low": 3.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.004587, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.008384, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.19708, "worst_return": -0.081439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.06482, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.003094, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.146119, "worst_return": -0.080029, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.00686, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04591, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.206731, "worst_return": -0.085227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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4.222566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.21, "volume": 286178329, "typical_volume": 218570228.15, "trend": 4.30801, "fair_value": 4.49864, "relative_strength": -1.459566, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.643155, "energy": 26.942506, "activity_lines": [ 4.171333, 4.098585, 4.145763, 4.215275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.34, "volume": 209391939, "typical_volume": 219641522.85, "trend": 4.302343, "fair_value": 4.493099, "relative_strength": 1.361179, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.834005, "energy": 21.974016, "activity_lines": [ 4.246667, 4.148858, 4.157523, 4.217339 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.34, "volume": 250653987, "typical_volume": 223792489.6, "trend": 4.298343, "fair_value": 4.487618, "relative_strength": -1.043672, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.908696, "energy": 25.184141, "activity_lines": [ 4.291333, 4.193325, 4.16976, 4.219769 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }