{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc549bda-92d8-4edd-af46-8441ff97c98f", "symbol": "3483", "name": "Forcecon Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.116, "architecture_energy": 65.884, "architecture_maturity": 13.285, "architecture_confidence": 80.355, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.41, "rotation_up": 9.67, "upward_expansion": 14.41, "deceleration": 37.69, "rotation_down": 72.34, "downward_expansion": 90.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.474522, 76.915722, 81.651675, 82.308135 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 73.400002, "trend_reference": 83.037461, "distance_from_trend": -0.116062, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 108.703309, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.324768, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.621203, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.096927, "excess_performance": -0.538299, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116062, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037727, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.324768, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104809, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.426212, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034029, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.096927, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.372014, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1347999, "relative_activity": 0.274953, "balance": 2.372014, "dry_up": 0.324205, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116809, "annualized_volatility": 0.46857, "from_high_reference": -0.355274, "from_low_reference": 0.096126 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 83.037461, "fair_value_reference": 108.703309, "structural_low": 66.963089, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.013755, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.407407, "median_excess_return": 0.004956, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.235661, "worst_return": -0.288489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.037415, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.029505, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.381964, "worst_return": -0.265574, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.030153, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.165689, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.523709, "worst_return": -0.347318, 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"close": 71.286385, "volume": 2048374, "typical_volume": 4934142.35, "trend": 83.961659, "fair_value": 109.278637, "relative_strength": -42.635495, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.719194, "energy": 70.067988, "activity_lines": [ 75.526423, 80.224698, 83.492272, 83.573647 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.400002, "volume": 1718681, "typical_volume": 4916642.1, "trend": 83.453779, "fair_value": 108.943419, "relative_strength": -40.786529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.706323, "energy": 68.102633, "activity_lines": [ 74.168867, 78.507759, 82.607563, 82.956765 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 73.400002, "volume": 1347999, "typical_volume": 4902652.1, "trend": 83.037461, "fair_value": 108.703309, "relative_strength": -42.621203, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.115529, "energy": 65.88416, "activity_lines": [ 73.474522, 76.915722, 81.651675, 82.308135 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }