{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc5c127d-37d1-42f4-8540-035ca8187da7", "symbol": "INFR", "name": "iShares Global Infrastructure UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.122, "architecture_energy": 29.005, "architecture_maturity": 42.901, "architecture_confidence": 55.466, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.23, "rotation_up": 45.78, "upward_expansion": 71.01, "deceleration": 61.47, "rotation_down": 24.37, "downward_expansion": 12.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.511333, 34.549091, 34.228539, 33.987688 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 33.755001, "trend_reference": 33.473707, "distance_from_trend": 0.008403, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.343465, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.150341, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.461979, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.069756, "excess_performance": -0.101136, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008403, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043746, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.150341, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009072, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09462, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043079, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.069756, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.247404, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 89817, "relative_activity": 0.678592, "balance": 1.247404, "dry_up": 0.809447, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024648, "annualized_volatility": 0.142271, "from_high_reference": -0.053156, "from_low_reference": 0.174013 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.473707, "fair_value_reference": 29.343465, "structural_low": 31.326129, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.002055, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.006417, "regime_survival": 0.71875, "best_return": 0.070305, "worst_return": -0.096309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.028687, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.020416, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.117376, "worst_return": -0.078266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.082934, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.007246, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.117977, "worst_return": -0.106253, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.324796, "energy": 79.604808, "activity_lines": [ 34.812333, 34.418804, 34.055212, 33.731294 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.57, "volume": 110154, "typical_volume": 136528.7, "trend": 33.218364, "fair_value": 29.233184, "relative_strength": -1.516682, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.177505, "energy": 81.163767, "activity_lines": [ 35.138999, 34.680454, 34.218772, 33.895473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.244999, "volume": 136110, "typical_volume": 140931.1, "trend": 33.352304, "fair_value": 29.28991, "relative_strength": -5.645138, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.490588, "energy": 47.83923, "activity_lines": [ 34.891999, 34.661545, 34.247581, 33.961707 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.755001, "volume": 89817, "typical_volume": 132357.95, "trend": 33.473707, "fair_value": 29.343465, "relative_strength": -9.461979, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.122439, "energy": 29.005169, "activity_lines": [ 34.511333, 34.549091, 34.228539, 33.987688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }